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Topic: Racing in 2020--not looking good in most predictions Email this topic to a friend | Subscribe to this TopicReport this Topic to Moderator
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egras
April 02, 2020 at 09:12:16 AM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3099
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-four-possible-timelines-for-life-returning-to-normal/ar-BB11JIBH?ocid=msn360

 

There are 4 outcomes shared by many experts in this article.  Only 1 of the outcomes supports us going to the race track this season----and that outcome is the least likely   frown




dirtlover
April 02, 2020 at 11:37:08 AM
Joined: 07/15/2013
Posts: 395
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Look if they opened eldora right now for a woo show then who has the balls to go and sit in the covid-19 grandstands?

are country is fucking ruined till they roll out a vaccine period thats it no way around it or out of it and it sucks but this is are life now



dsc1600
April 02, 2020 at 12:17:14 PM
Joined: 05/31/2007
Posts: 3446
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I don't think this author knows more than anyone else. It'll be an economic depression if we wait for a vaccine. 




Dryslick Willie
April 02, 2020 at 01:44:02 PM
Joined: 12/17/2009
Posts: 1792
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No offense at all Egras, but I wouldn't even bother with all of their forecasting.   Scientists can try to predict, but in the end it's just like the weather.    They aren't always right and of course, they don't make the weather.   I think all we can do is ride this thing out and see what happens.  Whenever it's done I'd be surprised if any one of their four scenarios are on the money.   Of course, not only can they be wrong but so can I.   We'll see what happens, but I'm not writing off the entire 2020 season just yet.   



Nick14
April 02, 2020 at 03:56:29 PM
Joined: 06/04/2012
Posts: 1502
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Reply to:
Posted By: Dryslick Willie on April 02 2020 at 01:44:02 PM

No offense at all Egras, but I wouldn't even bother with all of their forecasting.   Scientists can try to predict, but in the end it's just like the weather.    They aren't always right and of course, they don't make the weather.   I think all we can do is ride this thing out and see what happens.  Whenever it's done I'd be surprised if any one of their four scenarios are on the money.   Of course, not only can they be wrong but so can I.   We'll see what happens, but I'm not writing off the entire 2020 season just yet.   



Only thing with the scientists is they only present their forecasts based on the information that they have at the time which is ever changing. They have to forecast certain things in order to plan in some cases especially for the hospital outlook, and to help plan for courses of action. I doubt this thing will just goes away without them continuing to do their work. Some good news, although its more of a long range thing, is that theirr is a vaccine that Pitt researchers Unveiled to potentially fight this. Has a ways to go through as right now I think it will be going through Peer review. I saw the thing and it looks like velcro as there are many small needles made out of sugar substance. After a peer review it would have to go through FDA testing which takes a lot time but it is something that would change the current forecast. Saw it has worked successful in mice and as of March 16, 4 healthy volunteers in Seattle received a different potential COVID 19 vaccine adminsistered in a small clinical trial at Kaiser Permanente Wash Health Institue.  Will any of the forecasts happen exactly, no as they could get better, or worst as some states still have not implemented any type of social distancing. Plus even hypothetically say the vaccine was availble tomorrow, their are plenty of anti vaccers that wouldnt get it and throw the whole thing off.

I wouldn't necessarly write off the whole season, but I wouldn't exactly be buying tickets to anything in the next couple months either. This next month is critical to how everything moves forward in the future. I don't neccessarily feel optimistic about the racing season but as long as it hasn't been cancelled yet there is still hope.



egras
April 02, 2020 at 04:33:31 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3099
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Reply to:
Posted By: dsc1600 on April 02 2020 at 12:17:14 PM

I don't think this author knows more than anyone else. It'll be an economic depression if we wait for a vaccine. 



The author did cover 4 realistic paths and then kinda rated them as probable, unlikely and likely----more or less.  

I agree with the vaccine comment-----we just cannot wait for this to get back to "normal" or we will have an economy that makes the 2008 crash look like nothing.  We have to at least stop the bleeding May 1st or shortly thereafter----if at all possible.     


However, more than one scientist has said we may be opening bars and restaurants and forcing them to run 1/3 capacity for a long period of time.  Pro sports may be allowed to start back up with no crowds and then possibly with very small, spread out crowds.  There is a strong possibilty that we may be wearing masks when off of our property----it's already beginning in Los Angeles County.  Grocery stores and other stores will be keeping the 6 foot rule in effect----many of them have been taping lines on the floor at checkouts.  Schools will likely not return anywhere this spring.  No summer college courses will be held. 

So, where does this leave dirt track racing if this is the scenario?   I think in a scenario like the one above, dirt track racing would be dead for 2020.  If events like the Knoxville Nationals are allowed to run, and the virus is spreading at a low level during that time, and hospitals are not overrun, I would likely go to the Nationals.  But, if the virus is still widespread, and hospitals are struggling to keep up, and the death rate is steady, I wouldn't go anywhere near a large crowd this summer. 

I have 5 days/4 nights for late-June in Nashville with my wife.  I haven't officially cancelled yet, but I'm pretty sure it's not happening.  




egras
April 02, 2020 at 04:35:12 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3099
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This message was edited on April 02, 2020 at 04:36:55 PM by egras
Reply to:
Posted By: Dryslick Willie on April 02 2020 at 01:44:02 PM

No offense at all Egras, but I wouldn't even bother with all of their forecasting.   Scientists can try to predict, but in the end it's just like the weather.    They aren't always right and of course, they don't make the weather.   I think all we can do is ride this thing out and see what happens.  Whenever it's done I'd be surprised if any one of their four scenarios are on the money.   Of course, not only can they be wrong but so can I.   We'll see what happens, but I'm not writing off the entire 2020 season just yet.   



No offense taken.  I was just sharing the story.  I'm hopeful for the fate of SARS and MERS and it "burns" out.  I know that's a lot of hope.  



Dryslick Willie
April 02, 2020 at 04:49:14 PM
Joined: 12/17/2009
Posts: 1792
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Reply to:
Posted By: egras on April 02 2020 at 04:35:12 PM

No offense taken.  I was just sharing the story.  I'm hopeful for the fate of SARS and MERS and it "burns" out.  I know that's a lot of hope.  



Absolutely!  I'm a fan of the "burn out/fizzle out" theory.    I've got a cruise scheduled for May 29th, so there's going to have to be a ton of "fizzling" before than can happen.   Luckily I got the travel insurance, and if Royal Caribbean cancels it then I'll probably wind up with 150% credit towards a future cruise.   So my main hope right now is that the Nationals happen in August and then I take a much nicer cruise in 2021.   



Kingpin2014
MyWebsite
April 02, 2020 at 05:23:19 PM
Joined: 06/20/2017
Posts: 392
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This message was edited on April 02, 2020 at 05:29:07 PM by Kingpin2014

The problem we have is this is a novel virus, and we don't have good information/data so anybody making predictions is really just taking a stab in the dark at this point. We absolutely need to do large scale serological testing to see the scale of infections we missed and there's 3 scenarios in my opinion depending on the results:

1- We discover that we've only captured a tiny percentage of cases, millions of asymptomatic and mild infections were missed. This would indicate the biggest issue with the virus is it's spreading, as the death and hospital rates of actual infections be pretty low (but due to sheer volume still high numbers). This happened with swine flu when afterwards it was discovered about 25% of the world population had it. This would mean we'd be well on our way to herd immunity (which needs about 50-60% of the population to be immune) and it'd switch more to a logistical issue than a public health one- as in making sure we can sufficiently raise our hospital capacity and produce equipment needed. In this scenario I think we'd be racing by mid-summer. Imperial college (who had the initial report that caused everything to shut down a few days ago had one that estimated Italy and Spain to possibly have 15% of their population infected, would need that to be true here).
 

2- We discover that we have actually caught a majority of the cases. This would mean the virus isn't as contagious as thought now, and with suppression measures we could eradicate the virus and be back to normal by mid-summer.

 

3- We discover we've missed a decent chunk of cases, but not that many. Say the current totals are 40-90 percent of the actual infections. This would mean we aren't nearly close enough for any kind of herd immunity but the virus is too contagious to suppress into eradication. This one is the toughest to navigate. We'd certainly have more regional aspect (as in states open up more the less infections etc) and whether we can go racing would truly be up in the air with a lot of variables (seasonality, efficacy of current drugs, etc).

 

3 unfortunately is the most likely outcome, with 1 then 2. In the scenario of 3 we'd be in limbo pretty much until a vaccine can come along and that will be at best a year from now. 
 

A caveat of all this is the virus potentially mutating. Most people assume mutate is bad but it's not. Virus's replicate a lot and there's often mistakes (mutation) but they usually don't change how it works. The next most likely outcome is a deletion-good for us. There's also evolutionary pressure on a virus to evolve to be less lethal to its hosts so they can continue on forever, like the flu.




ROTORGLOW
April 02, 2020 at 05:51:53 PM
Joined: 12/20/2010
Posts: 187
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No Money, No Economy, No Sponsorship, = No Racing.    The virus will come and go but the economy once trashed will take years to recover.  Unless this thing ends now racing is on the back shelf for a good while.  Local small buisnessses that help local teams are folding up as I type.  Sad but we as racing fans must accept that this will damage our high dollar muse, no ways around it.


CAJ

linbob
April 02, 2020 at 06:21:19 PM
Joined: 03/12/2011
Posts: 1380
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Reply to:
Posted By: egras on April 02 2020 at 04:35:12 PM

No offense taken.  I was just sharing the story.  I'm hopeful for the fate of SARS and MERS and it "burns" out.  I know that's a lot of hope.  



It will sooner or later end.  The 1918 flu that killed about 25 million world wide in 1918-1919  ended.  That was without the healthcare we have today.  Yes, we still get the flu, but not like that.  I do think that some racers who are thinking about ending thier careers will do it  and some that think about going into racing may just peter out on the idea.  We will see.  I think the Indy 500 will be delayed till end of year and a 50/50 chance Knoxville Nationals will run on schedual.  I do think we are going to lose alot of bussiness that were operating with just break even sales before crisis.  Us taxpayers are going to be paying for this for years.  This may be a shock to some people, but us taxpayers must pay back these gov. checks.  Governmet will sell bonds to raise money and countries like China will buy the  bonds.  Nothing is free, this will shock some of you. but money will have to be paid back one way or another.  Good Luck.



linbob
April 02, 2020 at 06:21:53 PM
Joined: 03/12/2011
Posts: 1380
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Reply to:
Posted By: egras on April 02 2020 at 04:35:12 PM

No offense taken.  I was just sharing the story.  I'm hopeful for the fate of SARS and MERS and it "burns" out.  I know that's a lot of hope.  



It will sooner or later end.  The 1918 flu that killed about 25 million world wide in 1918-1919  ended.  That was without the healthcare we have today.  Yes, we still get the flu, but not like that.  I do think that some racers who are thinking about ending thier careers will do it  and some that think about going into racing may just peter out on the idea.  We will see.  I think the Indy 500 will be delayed till end of year and a 50/50 chance Knoxville Nationals will run on schedual.  I do think we are going to lose alot of bussiness that were operating with just break even sales before crisis.  Us taxpayers are going to be paying for this for years.  This may be a shock to some people, but us taxpayers must pay back these gov. checks.  Governmet will sell bonds to raise money and countries like China will buy the  bonds.  Nothing is free, this will shock some of you. but money will have to be paid back one way or another.  Good Luck.




longtimefan
April 02, 2020 at 07:15:35 PM
Joined: 12/02/2004
Posts: 419
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Life will never be the same as it was four months ago. It never is after a monumental event. My life has reset three times since 1995. Life won't end but a new normal will be reached. For most think 9-11 life has been different ever since but we are still racing. Anyone who thinks that there won't be anybody who wants to go fast just because they are broke is nuts. There was racing during the great Depression. Some sponcers will go out of business, others will be told by banks that we will help you stay in business but there will be no racing in the near future. But there will be people wanting to go fast and others wanting to watch them go fast. It will be different but there is way too much doom & gloom on this forum. Maybe I am crazy but I have more faith in people than most. I have been told many times that I have too much but I would rather live that way and be taken advantage by times than to live fear of the sky falling every time something goes wrong.



Kool Trikes
MyWebsite
April 02, 2020 at 08:01:06 PM
Joined: 07/16/2009
Posts: 251
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The average person has excellent odds to survive the virus.   The economy is the biggest issue the will affect everyone.

The government's plan so far of 2 trillion dollars is like me taking out a $6,600 loan from Chuckies Loan Service,  keeping $1,200 of it and giving the rest to my crazy drunken uncle who likes the ponies to invest and expecting good things to happen



Kingpin2014
MyWebsite
April 02, 2020 at 10:23:35 PM
Joined: 06/20/2017
Posts: 392
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Reply to:
Posted By: longtimefan on April 02 2020 at 07:15:35 PM

Life will never be the same as it was four months ago. It never is after a monumental event. My life has reset three times since 1995. Life won't end but a new normal will be reached. For most think 9-11 life has been different ever since but we are still racing. Anyone who thinks that there won't be anybody who wants to go fast just because they are broke is nuts. There was racing during the great Depression. Some sponcers will go out of business, others will be told by banks that we will help you stay in business but there will be no racing in the near future. But there will be people wanting to go fast and others wanting to watch them go fast. It will be different but there is way too much doom & gloom on this forum. Maybe I am crazy but I have more faith in people than most. I have been told many times that I have too much but I would rather live that way and be taken advantage by times than to live fear of the sky falling every time something goes wrong.



I really appreciate this post and it's given me a whole new outlook. The last 3 weeks I've read so many scientific journals/studies, news reports, looked at so many models etc that I've learned far to much about pandemics and virus. Its been driving me crazy and in the end it does me no good anyway. After reading this post I decided I'm cutting myself off from all the virus stuff. I have the luxury to work from home, the weather is getting nice I'm gonna golf and fish, and just make the best of it without worrying. And when the time comes that we get back the things we love, I'll be the first person in line at the race track, stadium, bar.




turn4guy
April 02, 2020 at 11:57:58 PM
Joined: 04/23/2015
Posts: 727
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This message was edited on April 03, 2020 at 12:06:47 AM by turn4guy

So I know these are unprecedented times and I'm pretty sure a Knoxville Nationals has never been canceled or even rescheduled. So hypothetically let's say Knoxville cancels. How do you think they'd handle the refunds on tickets already purchased? (I bought 12 of em). It'd be cool if they let us use them for 2021. If it gets pushed back to the fall then I cant go anyway and would have to sell. 

** I have to come back in here and edit this before I get lit up for being dumb....I bought the tickets the week they went on sale. About a week before this covid19 shit even came out into public eye. So don't be mean. And stay clean.



StanM
MyResults MyPressRelease
April 03, 2020 at 09:19:06 AM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5006
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I saw a news clip last night that gave me a hint about what it's going to be like after this thing rolls through.  The story was about things slowly returning to some semblance of normal in Wuhan where this whole thing made the jump to humans.  They're opening stores and checking masked shoppers temps and still following all of the social distancing protocols and are not allowing large gatherings.  It's going to take time before things like racing resume and even more time for the public to regain confidence to gather in large numbers.

I have been attending races since 1960 and even spent some time doing some local racing media work and photography but I have never been so invested in it that I'd go into a depression or not be happy if it ended.  I've got other hobbies like making music, artwork and simple things like working in the yard, sitting around the fire ring and going on walks.  Getting absorbed in learning about things on YouTube is an interest as well.  It could be anything from astronomy to watching an engine rebuild.  I did plan to keep up with racing using a combination of PPV and live races but it doesn't look like that is going to happen this year.  I stop and watch some of these racing reruns while channel surfing but they don't hold my interest like live racing.

It's all a matter of perspective and additute.  Someone mentioned they were going to keep themselves busy playing golf and fishing until what they love (racing) resumes.  Some people consider golf or fishing to be the things they love so as they say "beauty is in the eye of the beholder".  I guess as one of the old guys on this forum I would say be flexible and find joy in whatever you do.  Racing will return someday but the days of unlimited budgets and mega dollar motors may be have to be reconsidered.  Touring series depend on locals to fill the field and some aren't going to be able to keep up with the deep pockets after this is over.  I don't have a crystal ball but I see changes on the horizon


Stan Meissner

Nick14
April 03, 2020 at 09:27:07 AM
Joined: 06/04/2012
Posts: 1502
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Reply to:
Posted By: turn4guy on April 02 2020 at 11:57:58 PM

So I know these are unprecedented times and I'm pretty sure a Knoxville Nationals has never been canceled or even rescheduled. So hypothetically let's say Knoxville cancels. How do you think they'd handle the refunds on tickets already purchased? (I bought 12 of em). It'd be cool if they let us use them for 2021. If it gets pushed back to the fall then I cant go anyway and would have to sell. 

** I have to come back in here and edit this before I get lit up for being dumb....I bought the tickets the week they went on sale. About a week before this covid19 shit even came out into public eye. So don't be mean. And stay clean.



In the hypothetical of it being cancelled, I could see them offering the option of rolling over your tickets if you bought them from their ticket sight. Typically individulas who have purchased tickets the year prior get the option of purchasing the same seats for the following season, so depending on the software and accounting, they might be able to give an option of using your 2020 paid amount.

I hope that it doesn't happen either  way but it is becoming a very possible reality each day. I think that will be the 2 things that really put me in a depression with this whole thing. I am normally an introverted person who keeps my inner circle very tight so social distancing really doesn't hurt me, in fact some of it has been a welcomed change. But the two blows that will hurt the most is if Kings Royal and Knoxville gets cancelled. I know it would be for the greater good but still it will really get me bummed out if that happens




StanM
MyResults MyPressRelease
April 03, 2020 at 09:54:28 AM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5006
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Reply to:
Posted By: Nick14 on April 03 2020 at 09:27:07 AM

In the hypothetical of it being cancelled, I could see them offering the option of rolling over your tickets if you bought them from their ticket sight. Typically individulas who have purchased tickets the year prior get the option of purchasing the same seats for the following season, so depending on the software and accounting, they might be able to give an option of using your 2020 paid amount.

I hope that it doesn't happen either  way but it is becoming a very possible reality each day. I think that will be the 2 things that really put me in a depression with this whole thing. I am normally an introverted person who keeps my inner circle very tight so social distancing really doesn't hurt me, in fact some of it has been a welcomed change. But the two blows that will hurt the most is if Kings Royal and Knoxville gets cancelled. I know it would be for the greater good but still it will really get me bummed out if that happens



I would probably feel the way you do if racing was a socializing thing for me but I travel alone and an a loner at the track as well.  Spending years standing in the infield with a camera was social distancing before it became a thing.  Aside from a couple minutes of small talk with other photographers and track workers between races there wasn't much interaction.  Nobody from my family goes very often so it's a solo thing and probably one of the reasons I like PPV.  At least when I watch streaming races I get to hang out with the cats in the man cave.  wink


Stan Meissner

Keyboard Jockey
April 03, 2020 at 10:22:15 AM
Joined: 04/16/2014
Posts: 396
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The issue here is that everyone is trying so hard to be first... The first to say there is not going to be any racing, the first to say there is a race in a month everyone plan to be there, the first to say the government sucks and isnt doing anything, the first to say the government is doing everything, the first to say we are all going to die, the first to say the drugs are working... 

The truth of the matter is we dont know, and in today's information age we dont like that. 

For your own health and safety be OK with the answer I dont know for a short period of time and ride out the storm. Anxiety will kill people during this time. 





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