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Topic: Racing in 2020--not looking good in most predictions Email this topic to a friend | Subscribe to this TopicReport this Topic to Moderator
Page 5 of 10   of  185 replies
egras
April 20, 2020 at 08:00:46 AM
Joined: 08/16/2009
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Posted By: Kingpin2014 on April 19 2020 at 11:35:31 PM

NY governor said they're gonna start the anti-body testing on Monday, should get some prelimanry results in early may. My guess is they are well on the way towards herd immunity and that's what has caused the drop off in cases/hospitalization in the last week. If the lockdowns were having a large impact on rate of spread there would've been a drop off about 2 weeks after they were implimented (so first week of April) but there was not. I would not be surprised if 40% of NYC has had it. Theres also this to back up that estimate: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-hospital-finds-high-covid-19-infection-rate-but-few-symptoms-in-pregnant-women/2372863/

13.7% of pregnant women in nyc that went to that hospital between 3/22 and 4/2 had an active infection (so others could've already recovered and tested negative). All had no symptoms at the time but 3 did develop fevers. Presumably none would've gotten a test in a normal circumstance. 

For your question:
The city of Chicago (population says 2.7 million)? no.

Chicago metro area (9.53 million)? Possible. But I also don't know how the outbreak has been in the area.

 

Something to keep an eye on (and following the money) is that Moderna got $483 million fron the govt. Moderna was the first to get a vaccine to human trials a month ago. Seems like the money is to start to massive production of the vaccine, so the early indications must be good.



Sorry Kingpin---yes, metro area.

 

That's my inner hillbilly coming out in me.  Out here in pig farm Illinois, we refer to any town surrounding Chicago as "Chicago"  Smile



Kingpin2014
MyWebsite
April 20, 2020 at 06:16:13 PM
Joined: 06/20/2017
Posts: 498
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Posted By: egras on April 20 2020 at 08:00:46 AM

Sorry Kingpin---yes, metro area.

 

That's my inner hillbilly coming out in me.  Out here in pig farm Illinois, we refer to any town surrounding Chicago as "Chicago"  Smile



I figured that's what you meant but just clarifying. Also a mid-westerner and do the same.

 

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

LA county anti-body survey, and surprise surprise, massive undercounting of cases. Estimating 221-442,000 infections in early April when only 7,994 were confirmed. Also this quote from a USC professor "The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies."

If the NYC ones come back following this trend, not only will they be close to herd immunity but it'll be impossible to ignore and strategies will evolve, likely to a controlled herd immunity approach while keeping the at risk on lockdown.

 

Also Sweden is going to be doing major anti-body tests and they believe they are close to herd immunity in their major cities. Sweden has come under fire because there's no lockdown and primary schools, bars, restaurants etc are still open. 



egras
April 20, 2020 at 07:42:15 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3914
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Posted By: Kingpin2014 on April 20 2020 at 06:16:13 PM

I figured that's what you meant but just clarifying. Also a mid-westerner and do the same.

 

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

LA county anti-body survey, and surprise surprise, massive undercounting of cases. Estimating 221-442,000 infections in early April when only 7,994 were confirmed. Also this quote from a USC professor "The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies."

If the NYC ones come back following this trend, not only will they be close to herd immunity but it'll be impossible to ignore and strategies will evolve, likely to a controlled herd immunity approach while keeping the at risk on lockdown.

 

Also Sweden is going to be doing major anti-body tests and they believe they are close to herd immunity in their major cities. Sweden has come under fire because there's no lockdown and primary schools, bars, restaurants etc are still open. 



I've heard a lot of rumblings about "if you don't think it's safe to come out, then stay in your house and don't ruin for the rest of us"----paraphrasing.

So, looking at the "controlled herd immunity approach while keeping the risk on lockdown" there are a lot of things to be sorted out with this type of thought.  I'm in agreement we are going to have to run this through the population to get herd immunity.  But, I cannot wrap my head around how we lockdown the at risk population----most notably, the nursing homes and longterm care facilities.  (And, I'm not arguing with you--just thinking out loud)  How can the nurses, cooks, custodians, etc. that work at these facilities go out on their days off and live normally, and then return to work at these "locked down" facilities?  I can't see a solution to this problem other than having workers living full time at the facilities until herd immunity is achieved----and that isn't really a feasible option. 

 




newbeevur
April 20, 2020 at 08:24:28 PM
Joined: 12/03/2004
Posts: 483
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Racing will be going strong in Jefferson SD this weekend!

Terry McCarl promoted 410 sprint and IMCA mod show Saturday at Park Jefferson,

5 class IMCA show Sunday at Raceway Park (formerly Interstate Speedway)

Raceway Park actually had their practice days last weekend.


The worst president of my lifetime:
Ronald Reagan

revjimk
April 20, 2020 at 09:19:13 PM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7595
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Posted By: egras on April 20 2020 at 08:00:46 AM

Sorry Kingpin---yes, metro area.

 

That's my inner hillbilly coming out in me.  Out here in pig farm Illinois, we refer to any town surrounding Chicago as "Chicago"  Smile



"hillbilly" in illinois?

More like a dadburn flatlander! wink



egras
April 21, 2020 at 11:23:19 AM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3914
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Posted By: revjimk on April 20 2020 at 09:19:13 PM

"hillbilly" in illinois?

More like a dadburn flatlander! wink



wink




Kingpin2014
MyWebsite
April 23, 2020 at 12:02:25 PM
Joined: 06/20/2017
Posts: 498
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Alright so we got our first initial results from NYC anti-body prevelance at the governors press conference- which is 21% population infected. However this should be seen as the low end because it did not test anyone with current symptoms or children and people who just recovered may test negative for anti-bodies for up to 4 weeks until the long term ones are prevelant. Going from this I think my 40% estimate is probably in the ballpark. Even at 21% it brings the death rate to about .5-.6% and is heavily skewed towards 70+. Which the Italian health care worker sample had: 18-59 year olds about .1%, 60-60 1.4%, and 70+ at 12.63%



Nick14
April 23, 2020 at 02:32:34 PM
Joined: 06/04/2012
Posts: 1734
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Just saw Port Royal has suspended its 2020 schedule. They mentioned they are not cancelling anything at the moment, just suspended until further notice.

Eldora speedway has done the same for the month of May, and now show all events as postponed including the Letsracetwo weekend with the WoO & USAC.



ThePurple73
April 23, 2020 at 02:54:21 PM
Joined: 08/04/2010
Posts: 275
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Untill there is a vaccine or a real nation wide testing plan I doubt you see any. 




larsonfan
April 23, 2020 at 03:06:14 PM
Joined: 03/24/2013
Posts: 1445
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Posted By: Nick14 on April 23 2020 at 02:32:34 PM

Just saw Port Royal has suspended its 2020 schedule. They mentioned they are not cancelling anything at the moment, just suspended until further notice.

Eldora speedway has done the same for the month of May, and now show all events as postponed including the Letsracetwo weekend with the WoO & USAC.



My brother lives in Mechanicsburg. He said that the county that Port Royal is in (Juniata?) hasn't been hit that hard.

I thought I saw where Gov Wolfe said PA would start opening the least-hardest hit counties first.....

So just throwing this out there....Port Royal opens up first in central PA? (whenever that is)

Still hard to hold a race with no, or just a handful of fans in the stands. A lot of promotor's eyes will be on Tmac's PJ show tomorrow to see how that goes I'm sure.



dkdorkboy
April 23, 2020 at 03:09:01 PM
Joined: 12/04/2004
Posts: 211
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Posted By: larsonfan on April 23 2020 at 03:06:14 PM

My brother lives in Mechanicsburg. He said that the county that Port Royal is in (Juniata?) hasn't been hit that hard.

I thought I saw where Gov Wolfe said PA would start opening the least-hardest hit counties first.....

So just throwing this out there....Port Royal opens up first in central PA? (whenever that is)

Still hard to hold a race with no, or just a handful of fans in the stands. A lot of promotor's eyes will be on Tmac's PJ show tomorrow to see how that goes I'm sure.



No fans in South Dakota now.



larsonfan
April 23, 2020 at 03:59:48 PM
Joined: 03/24/2013
Posts: 1445
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Posted By: dkdorkboy on April 23 2020 at 03:09:01 PM

No fans in South Dakota now.



Wow. Hadn't heard that Denny. Atomic said tracks would be in the later stages of opening Ohio back up.

Keystone Corner awaits our return!




Nick14
April 23, 2020 at 04:44:51 PM
Joined: 06/04/2012
Posts: 1734
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Posted By: larsonfan on April 23 2020 at 03:06:14 PM

My brother lives in Mechanicsburg. He said that the county that Port Royal is in (Juniata?) hasn't been hit that hard.

I thought I saw where Gov Wolfe said PA would start opening the least-hardest hit counties first.....

So just throwing this out there....Port Royal opens up first in central PA? (whenever that is)

Still hard to hold a race with no, or just a handful of fans in the stands. A lot of promotor's eyes will be on Tmac's PJ show tomorrow to see how that goes I'm sure.



One of my cousins lives near there too and she has the virus along with her fiance. Another cousin to the north of there has it as well along with his wife.

I think it is still going to be a long shot for any place to make it work with no fans. Even if they are able to split the revenues up to satisfy all parties at first, eventually it will probably fade off depending on how many tracks try it. Not sure what platform will be used and who has what tracks (flo, speedshift, etc) but is however many monthly subscriptions across multiple tracks, racers, etc going to be able to cover all expenses and keep the gates open?

Even if they  went to a buy per event way, at what price are people going to stop watching. I think this week there will be a good number to maybe cover the bills because a lot of people are starving to see the sport but, will they spend it next week or in 2 weeks? What if there are two events and customers have to pay for both? Eventually people will start to pick and choose to where not having a crowd is not going to be feasible. I hope and wish there is a solution to at least keep the cars on the track but I do not see one without paid admission



railfan33
April 23, 2020 at 06:25:18 PM
Joined: 07/24/2010
Posts: 637
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Posted By: larsonfan on April 23 2020 at 03:06:14 PM

My brother lives in Mechanicsburg. He said that the county that Port Royal is in (Juniata?) hasn't been hit that hard.

I thought I saw where Gov Wolfe said PA would start opening the least-hardest hit counties first.....

So just throwing this out there....Port Royal opens up first in central PA? (whenever that is)

Still hard to hold a race with no, or just a handful of fans in the stands. A lot of promotor's eyes will be on Tmac's PJ show tomorrow to see how that goes I'm sure.



Port Royal is in Juniata county. 77 confirmed cases to date.



amyjur
April 23, 2020 at 06:52:23 PM
Joined: 08/13/2005
Posts: 98
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This message was edited on April 23, 2020 at 08:08:37 PM by amyjur
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Posted By: railfan33 on April 23 2020 at 06:25:18 PM

Port Royal is in Juniata county. 77 confirmed cases to date.



Per the announcement today reopening Pa will be done with the state broken up into regions. I believe Port, the Grove and Lincoln are all in the same region. Analysis will not be done simply by case count within a county. Juniata is a rural county with a lower population than say Cumberland where the Grove is located. Their system factoring in population takes that into account.  Below 50 cases per 100,000 in population over a 2 week period is the goal within a county for the stay at home mandate to be lifted. Even if a county meets that goal it has to be met throughout their region (approx 11 counties in a region) for the order to be lifted in that region. Sadly even when the stay at home order is lifted and some businesses can reopen tracks arent one of them. Still no dine in at restaurants with gatherings of 25 the max. They have released no info on what the data has to be to get to that point where race tracks will reopen with fans. Unclear if they even know what those numbers are at this point. 




oswald
April 23, 2020 at 07:31:38 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1982
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I still do not think crowds of 1000 or more will be allowed till there is a vaccine. Wouldn't be surprised if you need to show proof you have gotten the vaccine before you are allowed into the stands even then. I'm thinking next spring before dirt track racing can come back to what we consider normal.

I pray I am wrong. 



highspeeddirt
April 24, 2020 at 08:48:34 AM
Joined: 01/06/2009
Posts: 399
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Knoxville has posted May 16th as a tentative date. 

I have thought all along if any place could pull it off and maintain the social distancing it would be that place.

Things I would expect for them to make this happen.

Open both stands to allow fans to spread out.

Maybe run only 1 class each night to allow for spacing in pits. No fans allowed in pits after races.

Concessions - follow the same protocols used in all stores right now with lines showing spacing.

Masks - Mandatory once on the grounds.

Sanitizer stations - put these at each aisle on the bottom walkway.

Wouldn't surprise me to see extra security to help ensure the distance requirements in the stands.

If the state would allow it this would be monitored closely. If Marion county or surrounding counties experiance a rise in cases they would pull the plug on allowing the races. 



MandGRacing96
April 24, 2020 at 09:40:00 AM
Joined: 01/19/2009
Posts: 583
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Posted By: highspeeddirt on April 24 2020 at 08:48:34 AM

Knoxville has posted May 16th as a tentative date. 

I have thought all along if any place could pull it off and maintain the social distancing it would be that place.

Things I would expect for them to make this happen.

Open both stands to allow fans to spread out.

Maybe run only 1 class each night to allow for spacing in pits. No fans allowed in pits after races.

Concessions - follow the same protocols used in all stores right now with lines showing spacing.

Masks - Mandatory once on the grounds.

Sanitizer stations - put these at each aisle on the bottom walkway.

Wouldn't surprise me to see extra security to help ensure the distance requirements in the stands.

If the state would allow it this would be monitored closely. If Marion county or surrounding counties experiance a rise in cases they would pull the plug on allowing the races. 



Just saw a video where southern raceway in Florida is having a PPV event on May 2nd. Late models I think, but hey its not a video game




Kingpin2014
MyWebsite
April 24, 2020 at 03:56:42 PM
Joined: 06/20/2017
Posts: 498
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Posted By: on at


Yup this is what I've been posting studies about for the last few weeks in here. Genetic tracking of the virus shows it was seeded in NYC in late January (also the ones traced back all came from Europe). Now we got confirmation that a death in California from first week of February was from covid and community spread. So it's pretty apparent there's been community spread going on in the US since late January- 6 weeks before any measures. 

 

Today another anti-body survey was released, and it followed the same trend as the others. Miami-Dade county did a random survey and 6% had anti-bodies. For this county they are estimating 123-210k have been infected at some point with these results, compared to 10,000 confirmed cases (which itself it's been one of the best counties at testing, so their captured vs missing cases is going to be lower than most). It would also bring IFR to 0.1-0.18% in line with the california studies, but both still much lower than New York. I still think the fatality rate is inbetween, 0.2-0.4%

Also adding to the outdoor, other human coronaviruses have not been prevelant during summer. Over an 8 year period in Michigan studying human coronaviruses, only 2.5% of infections occurred during June-September (though most years they didn't monitor that time period presumably because of how little). It indicated they all had similar patterns of ramping up in December and peaking in January and February. Now obviously this is a novel human coronavirus, so this is only a possible indication on how it'll behave in the coming months. https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa161/5815743



egras
April 24, 2020 at 07:22:01 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3914
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Posted By: Kingpin2014 on April 24 2020 at 03:56:42 PM

Yup this is what I've been posting studies about for the last few weeks in here. Genetic tracking of the virus shows it was seeded in NYC in late January (also the ones traced back all came from Europe). Now we got confirmation that a death in California from first week of February was from covid and community spread. So it's pretty apparent there's been community spread going on in the US since late January- 6 weeks before any measures. 

 

Today another anti-body survey was released, and it followed the same trend as the others. Miami-Dade county did a random survey and 6% had anti-bodies. For this county they are estimating 123-210k have been infected at some point with these results, compared to 10,000 confirmed cases (which itself it's been one of the best counties at testing, so their captured vs missing cases is going to be lower than most). It would also bring IFR to 0.1-0.18% in line with the california studies, but both still much lower than New York. I still think the fatality rate is inbetween, 0.2-0.4%

Also adding to the outdoor, other human coronaviruses have not been prevelant during summer. Over an 8 year period in Michigan studying human coronaviruses, only 2.5% of infections occurred during June-September (though most years they didn't monitor that time period presumably because of how little). It indicated they all had similar patterns of ramping up in December and peaking in January and February. Now obviously this is a novel human coronavirus, so this is only a possible indication on how it'll behave in the coming months. https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa161/5815743



Good stuff again Kingpin.

 

It's also worth noting that New York City had the 21% antibody prevalance (per your previous post) while the warmer, southern "hot-spot" of Miami had a 6% rate.  It has definitely been a more exponential spread in colder climates.  That tells me that warmer weather will almost definitely slow the spread to a point that would allow much of our country to open up by June---at least to some sort of normal. 

Will that allow racing crowds?  In my opinion, they should be allowed with an emphasis on social distancing and a recommendation for those in the high-risk category stay home for this season. 

It seems that we have two clashing personalities in this entire crisis.  We have those who are giving us the recommendations to the quickest, safest route out of this mess.  And then we have those who refuse to listen and defy orders-----causing us to lose more freedoms for longer.  

So, until we start to listen to the "no groups of more than......" or "no gatherings at parks" or "only 1 person into Walmart at a time" or "no play dates" or..........you get the picture, they will not allow racing because if you put the social distancing guidelines in as a rule for the race crowd, they have to assume no one will listen.  This is because we are a spoiled, entitled society that is not going to let anyone tell us what is best for us-----------even if they are right.  And so far, there has been nothing that has happened to prove that they haven't been right about this all along.  

My grandmother is 96.  She laughs when she hears about how tough everyone has it right now with the stay at home order.  Some of her friends and relatives were shipped overseas for WWII and were never heard from again.  She said there was actual genuine fear that we were going to lose the war, and with it, their land and homes and possibly lives.  She thinks it's comical everyone believes this is as tough as it gets.  

To sum up my points:  Everyone start following the guidelines and we may get the okay to run some races this summer.  But before we do, they have to believe we aren't a bunch of redneck morons that can't follow rules.  





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