Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

Great stuff Kingpin.  It is refreshing to read posts like this where some actual thought, research, and realism are put into the content.  I'm sick of the "overblown" "over-reaction" "hoax" "run for the hills" "we're all going to die" bullcrap from both sides of the aisle.  What we need are numbers and facts based on scientific studies and tests.  

Also, for those trying to disregard projections, these projections are not made simply grasping at the wind.  They are about as accurate as anything we have.  If you look at how this whole thing has gone, there were plenty of us on Hoseheads and other social media, who followed pretty reputable sources that predicted EXACTLY what is happening today.  They also predicted a few weeks back what the outcome of social distancing measures would produce----and they are coming true as well.  So, I ask everyone this:  Why wouldn't you trust them with the next predictions?  I know there are many courses this could take, but it seems most of the scientists (not the ones that are nut-bags on all of your conspiracy theory jack-wagon sites) have a pretty good idea of the scenarios that are laid out in front of us?   When is everyone going to wave the white flag on this and accept this is a problem that is going to have to be gotten under control before we get back to normal?  

To simply say "no one knows where this is going to go" is simply not true.  The experts, that have degrees in Epidemiology, have a really good idea how this stuff spreads and is controlled.  Why not start listening to their expertise?  They have a pretty good idea, as Kingpin eluded to previously, about the 4 routes this virus is going to take.   I'm confused why so many bull-headed people are still not buying any of this.  ??????

Everyone hears one doctor on Youtube, and the next thing you know, this thing is a made-up hoax virus, that originated from a Chinese lab, and the Russians already have a vaccine that they are only sharing with Iran and North Korea.  (weird turn of events because made up hoax viruses don't need a vaccine---which adds to the confusion for me)

Kingpin----please keep giving us the info you are finding.  I am seeing a lot of the same.  

I think people say the whole "no one knows where this is going to go," is because inevitably predictions & models will change throughout. That is science, and scientists are always examing data & recalculating based on the information. Some predictions & results will change as more information & actions are taken. For some To say "well three weeks ago they said this & now it has changed," doesn't really understand how everything is connected. Three weeks ago they were making predictions & models based on the research they had. Now they have more data, more cases, more observation, first hand knowledge, testing. Plus you had varying implementing of social distancing. It shouldn't take a math wiz to know how much higher the count would be if certain measures were not taken.

I think conspiracy theorist really need to find a better hobby. In 2020, with social media and how people are, nobody can keep a secret. I think some people just can't handle their opinion or line of thinking was wrong in a certain case, but instead of acceptance & adjusting, they turn to justification & conspiracy

Truth Nick

I remember the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic very well.  I've seen all over social media headlines like this "Swine Flu Killed 12,000 in 2009, did businesses shut down?..............so on and so forth"   

No, it didn't shut down America, but I do remember the political fighting, the conspiracy theories, the talk of mass vaccination, tagging and controlling of citizens.  I remember Rush Limbaugh saying on live TV he wouldn't take the vaccine because it was not a vaccine, but some sort of medication Obama wanted in everyone so he could begin the New World Order.  I remember the political back and forth like it was yesterday.  The virus was fake.  It was a way for Americans to be further controlled.  And on, and on, and on.  (luckily, that virus proved to be much weaker than the Covid-19 virus is proving to be)

Yet, here we are, 11 years later, and life over those 11 years has been as good as any for America.  I got vaccinated that year, and no one has been tracking me.  If they have, they need to get a new hobby because I am not very vital when it comes to national security. 

You're right Nick, everyone needs to find a new hobby.  My dad needs to find a new hobby.  He's a retired farmer who did really well for himself and all he ever does is come up with ways the government is trying to get him.  I just look at him and tell him "dad, your 71 years old, you're retired and you have ammassed more wealth than 95% of the population does...............you did it!!  You can do whatever you want.  Why do you spend so much time worrying about what the goverment is trying to do to you?  Go enjoy yourself."   But he can't.  He can't be happy unless there is struggle----the farmer way I guess. 

Well there certainly is some truth to the we don't know what is happening, but it's not from bad models or stupid people or anything, we just didn't have good data. So decisions had to be made on the data we did. About a month ago is when it started to surface in some studies that what we are seeing is possibly just the "tip" of the iceberg of infections. The cruise ship certainly buoyed this idea since about half those on board that tested positive had no symptoms and then there was people with symptoms very minor, like a lady who had a low grade fever for a day. Obviously none of those people would be tested if they weren't on that boat. Now we're starting to get hard data to start supporting that theory and since my last post Sweden and Austria produced studies supporting that. 
 

As for swine flu there is something we can compare- or at least hope we are going down that path as it seems we might be. The original death rate of swine flu early in the pandemic was pretty high which sparked the craze with it. It started to come down dramatically as we got more data and we have come to find out with testing afterward we missed 99+% of the cases. That would be the hope. 

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6874-fema-coronavirus-projections/1e16b74eea9e302d8825/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

FEMA worst case estimates continue on the trend of a low infection fatality rate with the biggest issue being the volume in a short period because we are a naive population to the virus (meaning everyone is susceptible to be infected).  

Very interesting.  Seems we are going to have a spike as soon as the shelter in place ends-----which makes sense.  Everyone keeps looking to China for how it's going to go here.   No, no, no folks.  Those people were locked up for 8 weeks and got their cases to a near stand-still.   (or at least according to their "media")

I went to the gas station today to fill up my truck and mowers, and 3 people walked up to me and tried to start a conversation 2 feet from my face.  We, as a country, aren't taking this seriously enough to get this outbreak stopped.  It's going to go through the population much like the graphs predict it seems.  I think it will end up running through the population before a vaccine will make a difference, but we'll see.

I made a comment to someone on Facebook today.  My daughter is senior this year and is missing her senior prom, senior softball season, likely graduation, etc.  I told them, there is a chance the senior class of '21 could have a worse senior year than the class of '20.  There is a really good chance there will be disruption to fall sports, cancelling of winter sports, and delay in spring sports for 2020-2021.  Tell me I'm crazy?

I think as of now, everything is just a big question mark from mid May forward. Which drives a lot of people crazy because vwe are a I must know now species. Here in Ohio, we are in about our 4th week of some sort of restrictions and about 3 with stay at home unless necessary guidelines. The state has been flattening the curve substantially but there is still concern due to obvious testing issues, and other states not implementing the same sort of guidelines. 

I have told multiple friends & family members to just take things one day at a time. People 150-200 years ago did this sort of thing constantly without even knowing it. We have just become a culture of constant entertainment and thats old & young. I feel bad for those once in a lifetime moments for some people like graduations or senior seasons, etc. It is unfair & a bitter pill but there could be worst things. Hopefully in the next month more progress, research, testing, discovery will be made and this can end. It seems the states following the orders are making progress, just needs to happen countrywide

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

Winston Churchill

Member of this message board since 1997

Sounds about right

Saw a story today with Dr. Fauci stating that he basically sees a way of sports returning this summer and even this year. Unfortuately for us sprint car fans is that he stated it would be without fans in stadiums, keep athletes in hotels, and have them tested weekly. That is all good and fine for NFL, NCAA, MLB, NHL, and even Nascar but sprint car racing I doubt can have a season without fans in the stands. Granted I think we could see enough people stream races but they would have to change the way the revenue/contract sturcture is where tracks, sanctioning body, and drivers get a cut of the money. I don't know if that will happen or not.

Bummed a little bit as I was really looking forward to getting to the track. Especially the Nationals this year where I was going to take my son for his first Nationals. Understand if the experts say that is for the best but, still a little bummed

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29038491/dr-anthony-fauci-promotes-single-site-fan-free-return-sportsS

In the words of a great president.  The most terrifying words in the English language.  Hi I am from the government and I am here to help.

Let's go Sprint Car Racing!

Knoxville - Best Track In the USA!
Eldora - 2nd Best Track in the USA!

Keeping my fingers crossed for Nationals as well.  I have pretty much written off the June WoO trip, and my trip to Nashville with my wife in June----although I haven't yet cancelled my rooms yet.  

My wife and daughter are planning on going to Cancun in July at the same time my son and I were planning on hitting Hayward, Wisconsin for a couple of days of fishing.  I have hopes that those 2 things can still happen as planned-----but, everything seems to be a big question mark.

Well I'd say there's some glimmer of hope as states are starting to attempt to re-open and the feds have their guidelines.

Scientifically we got great news today in the early results from the first major California anti-body test in Santa Clara county.  With the sample (which was a size-able 3300 people) , they are estimating 2.5-4.1 percent of that county population has been infected and recovered. This would equal somewhere from 41-84 thousand cases (only 1700 were confirmed previously). They think somewhere between 50 and 85 cases are missed for everyone 1 that we confirm. They also estimate an Infection fatality rate of 0.09-0.14%- which would literally be flu levels. Now I think that's a bit too low, especially in hard hit places like Lombardy and NYC (though I think these places very likely have well over 25% population infected). But there is an overwhelming amount of anti-body tests all coming in with the conclusion that we are missing magnitudes of cases. My guess from these is it varies, but fatality rate is probably in the 0.2-0.6% range. Still dangerous but much better than initial indication of 3% that the WHO STILL is using for some reason. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

It should also be mentioned all these studies are obviously behind real time (samples here were taken about 2 weeks ago) so given the spread it's the percent infected today is higher. I think the governor of California got this info yesterday when he mentioned 'herd immunity' multiple times. 
 

For interest in potential sprint car racing this year, a study was put out for pre-print that examined well over a hundred 'outbreaks' and only 1 was from outdoors. "Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk." Hopefully more studies are done on this, but if these results hold true it could mean outdoor activities pose little threat for an outbreak. Maybe even for extra precaution require everyone to wear a mask if you need to.

One last note is a researcher from Oxford thinks in a best case scenario they could be mass producing a vaccine by the fall. Obviously that doesn't mean much for this racing season but it does for other sports (namely football) and 2021 as a whole.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30796-0/fulltext

Anyway there's a lot of science starting to pour in now that places not named China have had time to study. Some decently promising news. The last piece would be a therapeutic option. Even something that would prevent 20% of cases from needing ICU or 20% of icu patients dying would be massive.

Good information. The only thing that I wonder about is the outdoor outbreak information and the timeline for the information. Is it taking into consideration that there were not any "mass" populated outdoor areas where people are in close proximity to each other? Say you are at a concert and someone who may be symptomatic does sneeze or cough, and the next thing you know you have however many people around said person that now have been compromised, they go home with more people in the house, etc. The home outbreaks make since because if a person has it, and isn't showing symptoms the next thing you know whether its a door knob, counter, contact, etc then the whole family gets it.

I have read many things that are encouraging as well from a health & population standpoint. From an entertainment standpoint though, seems like it is best to not have your heart too terribly set on anything

"We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous". So entertainment was one of them, but I didn't read through the 22 page study to find out what exactly was encompassed. I think the big thing about indoors is the air being stagnant and recirculated where obviously outside it's not. Touching the virus and getting it on your hands itself doesn't get you infected, the virus can't come in through your skin. It's when you then touch you eyes, inside nose, and mouth. I think (I'm no scientist but have been reading a lot) the vast majority of transmission is We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneousthrough the droplets. Which is where masks come in- IF this study holds up combined with required mask wearing would conceivably allow outdoor activities to go on.

That said I agree with you that I wouldn't be banking on any event. It's clear that pretty much everyone is set to play this as conservatively as possible. I also do think there's a chance stuff is going on by late summer/early fall

Great information.  By these numbers, if the sample size is good enough (as it appears to be) there are between 8 and 14 million people who are, or have already been infected.  This is actually good news.  If the death rate is indeed in the .1-.5% this does not make this "just like the flu"----even at the lowest death rate.  The seasonal flu does not overload hospitals the way this did in many overseas and domestic locations.  So, it appears to me, our main hurdle with this virus, should all of the info you are giving us be accurate, is going to be the contagiousness of the virus, would you agree Kingpin?  

Something else to take into account when comparing death rate to the flu is the percentage of those vulnerable to the flu and percentage of those vulnerable to COVID-19 and the rate of spread.  

1.  30-50% of the population is vulnerable to the flu.  100% of the population is vulnerable to COVID-19.  

2.  Flu spreads at a rate of 1:1.  Those with COVID-19 are thought to infect 3 people or 3:1  

So, Kingpin, this is great news and means we are getting closer than we thought, and it's not near as deadly.  We are going to be asked to wait on returning to 100% normal because of the rate of spread and percent of population that is vulnerable.  That said, I think we can get our workforce back to work as soon as the hospitals feel prepared.  I personally would not be afraid to attend a sprint car race in July or August if rate of transmission is determined to be low.  I'm not in a high-risk category, so I would take my chances.  If spreading at a moderate-high rate at that time, I wouldn't even consider it.  

I also have been hearing MUCH better time frames than 12-18 months for vaccines.  I know 1 company from the US said they would have 1 million doses ready for distribution by late-fall to early-winter.  

Right, I was just comparing the potential death rate could actually be flu level. But as you mentioned, we had a totally susceptible population to sars-cov2 and this virus is much more contagious. Combine those and you get a fast spreading disease that may not be all that bad but the sheer volume makes it much worse and can exceed hospital capacity. I do think the .1% estimations are a bit low and think .3% would be a decent guess at overall death rate with hot spots being higher. 
 

It is really good news if this is an accurate overall sample (obviously some rural places will be lower and urban higher). This study was done about 2 weeks ago too, so the percentages of infected should be higher. Not only does it mean the virus isn't as deadly for the average person, but means we're getting more and more herd immunity benefits. Herd immunity isn't a on/off switch, technically everyday we gain some bit of herd immunity which in turn lowers the transmissibility of the virus. Once areas start getting appreciable numbers, say 10% immune, the virus will slow because there is a decent amount less paths to spread. And the slowing increases exponentially as you get closer (60ish percent is estimated for herd immunity). 
 

I was hopeful reading about the potential of a vaccine this fall actually being realistic. I had resigned to the fact that a vaccine wouldn't be here till this time next year at best. Though the 1 million doses doesn't sound super great when we have a country of 330 million lol. I'd imagine if/when a vaccine gets close and looks certain to be approved the govt will pay them a hefty license amount so they can have others produce it and be doing a million a day. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-vaccine-may-be-ready-for-mass-production-by-autumn-oxford-professor-says/ar-BB12LfyE

Another article about the potential vaccine and here the scientist says possibly starting in September. Not in here but it's been reported they're going to ramp up production during the trials at risk- so if it passes they can hit the ground running. If it doesn't, a lot of wasted money. 

Even 1 million would be a great start to start vaccinating the health care workers that have not yet been infected.  If they got all of the health care workers vaccinated, followed by the elderly and those with health conditions, I would need to know my risks before getting it myself.  I'm not opposed to vaccinations if I feel the benefits are well worth the risks, but would consider skipping if all prone individuals were vaccinated and transmission rates were low.  I will wait for more numbers to come out before making my decision.  

Either way, we need one. 

Any start is a good one and yeah health care workers would be front of the line to receive it as they should. And as I said earlier if this (or any candidate) starts getting close theyll get tons of money to license the process elsewhere to ramp up production. It seems like this vaccine they are developing in oxford is just a modification on a previously developed MERS one so the safety isn't much of an issue, which makes me feel a lot better about possibly getting it rushed.