Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

The truth is the purse can't be covered .     This model of racing without fans in the stands is not sustainable.  If the Outlaws are renting the track then that shows that a track can't afford to have a race without fans.  Because the Outlaws aren't going to wave or lower the sanction fees for tracks.   The Outlaws have a business model and they need revenue to maintain that business.

Simple math will tell you that PPV will not bring enough money to sustain the model of fan less races.

Just to make the math simple.  Assume 5000 fans at $30 a ticket which is $150000.  So to equal that much revenue 5000 people would need to purchase the PPV for $30.  And it might have that many people buying right now because people want to see racing. But how many are going to spend $20 to $30  per race?  I would say not many of us.  Why do all the services offer a yearly plan because it is a better value for the consumers.    So in my opinion it is not a workable plan to assume fans will spend $20 to $30 when a yearly package is what $5 or less per race.     And what stops one friend from buying the race and their friends come to the house and watch the race.    The only way fan less racing works is 5000 people at the track are the same 5000 that individually buy the race.

Let me give you an example:

In my wonderful state of Illinois, our Governor has made it illegal to be in a place of business without a mask---effective today.  So, agree, or disagree, these businesses must abide by the rule/law.  So, this morning my daughter has to go to work at the local gas station and is mortified of the response she is going to get as her boss has already told her not to serve anyone not wearing a mask.

So, this morning Facebook is blown up with people being told they will not be served at various businesses all over the county.  They are never going back, can't believe this is America, ripping on the employees who told them the policy, on and on and on and on. 

So, yes, the average American is dumb right now.  Why rip on employees that are doing what they are told by their boss?  Why ban Menards because of their policy following the health officials guidelines?  And, even worse, the employees trying to take home a paycheck?

To be real honest, I don't think the masks will do shit.  But, I'm going to wear one, because it's the law and I don't want to put some of those hard-working people in a bad spot.

So, let's translate this to the race track.  You're going to take these same idiots who have no regard, or respect for any type of authority or people just doing their jobs, and put them in the stands at a race?  And expect them to do the right thing?  No.  They're too dumb at this point.  The first race with fans would likely be the last because they wouldn't be able to put away their pride for 3 hours and not ruin it for everyone else.  

I would not be one of the "average."  I would follow the guidelines----so, I do think much of myself. 

I'll throw some hypothetical numbers out there... may or may not be that close to reality... but what the hell!?

The Outlaw purse at Knoxville last June =$50k a night.  

Track rental (total guess here) = $50k -- the track would have to pay for insurance, electricity, local officials (ie, flagman, people to sign in the drivers, etc), and track prep... nothing else.  Could they make money on $50k rent for one race??  Hypothetically, I would hope so.

Back gate fees (4 pit passes average per 48 teams = 192 pit passes x $40 = $7,680

The total the WoO need to get from PPV to break even is the $100k purse and rental less the $7,680 back gate fees = $92,320

If the WoO did NOT have the $40 monthly Fast Pass, they would need 3,078 PPV purchases (from every race fan worldwide -- sequestered at home, bored out of their ever living mind right now -- that has access to moderately fast internet) to get to that break even point -- 3,078 x $30 = $92,340.  

The cost of a fast pass is $40 a month.  How many subscribers do they have ???... again, worldwide, any race fan (sequestered at home, bored out of their ever living mind right now) that has access to moderately fast internet.  30k subscribers on the low end... 40k in the middle... maybe 50k or more on the high end?  30k subscribers = $1.2M a month... 40k subscribers = $1.6M a month ... and 50k subscribers = $2M a month. 

Not counting a single person paying a $30 one-off fee to watch (very unlikely, but possible) ... and 30k Fast Pass subscribers... that's $1.2M a month.

If the WoO put on just 4 shows a month (Knoxville, I-80, Jackson, and I-55 ... examples) ... rented the tracks, no fans, just PPV.  Their break-even cost (using the numbers above) would be $369,280 for those 4 shows.  If they went crazy and scheduled 2 shows a week (8 in a month), the monthly break-even cost would be $738,560.  The more shows they had in a month, the more value a Fast Pass would hold... so the 30k Fast Pass subscribers would maybe jump up... maybe double to 60k, at least in the short-term.  That would be $2.4M coming in per month.

A wild card with this is sponsors... how much is Drydene paying the WoO to be the title sponsor of DirtVision??  It's could be a sizable amount.  How much is NOS paying too??  I have no idea, but they're not free.  The WoO also has to advertise a little... but I would not think as much as if they were trying to attract a person to buy a ticket to walk through the front gate.  One could argue that their 20% discount on new Fast Pass subscribers or 20% discount on a $30 one-time PPV purchase on May 8th could qualify as an advertising cost. 

Hosting a WoO show with no fans, could a track pay the $50k purse, a $50k sanction fee (total guess there), plus their other overhead costs... with no PPV revenue share... no freakin' way!  Sponsors would help, but it would have to be an amazing $pon$or.  I don't think the WoO is willing to give any of the PPV revenue share... so I think this is where we're at (for now... hopefully not long!!!).  It could end up being beneficial to everybody if done right... IMO.

I'd say you're pretty close & if anything conservative. My buddy & I have had this same conversation & our numbers are close to yours. We've both been around racing 40+ years as owner/ drivers and he also as track owner & vendor. 
we both say it's likely a home run for somebody but not sustainable more than a few times. 

Soooo back to the original question (without badmouthing other us citizens, the president, state governments etc etc etc) I would guess pay per view.

I am guessing you are correct about the Park Jefferson race and the PPV except I think you probably guessed a little low at 10,000. Regardless the show should have been a financial success.

I am throwing out there when fans ARE allowed at races with social distancing, let Knoxville run a Friday-Saturday show WoO sprints and WoO late models. Open front and back limit it to 4000 per night. $80 per ticket per night. No concession stands or beer sales to limit human interaction. I am guessing there are plenty of hardcore fans within a 400 mile radius of Knoxville that would support this. Certain amount of fender freaks that dont like sprints would go and a certain amount of wing nuts that don't like fenders would go. Maybe some would actually discover they enjoy what they had written off for many years.

As with what Terry McCarl did at Park Jefferson limit the amount of entries, possibly 32 sprints and 32 LMs

That LM race last night was entertaining with all the last minute call in's pledging money, it was heartwarming to see signs of life in the racing industry!    The actual racing had it's moments too,   I am pretty sure that I have never before heard the phrase "Is he going to open a White Castle and throw a slider?"

But it shouldn't be called the Front Row Challenge,   TMac (rightfully) pointed out on Twitter that it is a registered trademark....and with everybody calling in and offering cash bonus's on their own terms, it turned into the Top 4 Challenge.   

This is exactly right.  Park Jefferson was a home run and probably profitable,  as was last night.  The first WoO races at Knoxville and Boone will probably be homeruns as well.  

But, those are one offs for a public that is starved for any access to real racing.  A month from now, once we are 6-8 races into this, and the novelty wears off, even if the numbers are still higher than normal, they are not going to be enough to justify keeping it up over the long haul with no fans.   Dirtcar also needs to do something to justify people not cancelling their Dirtvisionfastpasses right now, so this is a stopgap until they can return to some type of regular schedule.

Same with the sponsors.  They are probably willing to go over and above to foot bills and subsidize these shows on a one off, short term basis, but that is not going to last forever : it's just not in their budgets. Especially, if the PPV numbers start to level off and the exposure is not as valuable.

"....as was last night....."

What was last night?

The Late Model race that was mentioned 4 times in this thread

Let me give you an example:

In my wonderful state of Illinois, our Governor has made it illegal to be in a place of business without a mask---effective today.  So, agree, or disagree, these businesses must abide by the rule/law.  So, this morning my daughter has to go to work at the local gas station and is mortified of the response she is going to get as her boss has already told her not to serve anyone not wearing a mask.

So, this morning Facebook is blown up with people being told they will not be served at various businesses all over the county.  They are never going back, can't believe this is America, ripping on the employees who told them the policy, on and on and on and on. 

So, yes, the average American is dumb right now.  Why rip on employees that are doing what they are told by their boss?  Why ban Menards because of their policy following the health officials guidelines?  And, even worse, the employees trying to take home a paycheck?

To be real honest, I don't think the masks will do shit.  But, I'm going to wear one, because it's the law and I don't want to put some of those hard-working people in a bad spot.

So, let's translate this to the race track.  You're going to take these same idiots who have no regard, or respect for any type of authority or people just doing their jobs, and put them in the stands at a race?  And expect them to do the right thing?  No.  They're too dumb at this point.  The first race with fans would likely be the last because they wouldn't be able to put away their pride for 3 hours and not ruin it for everyone else.  

I would not be one of the "average."  I would follow the guidelines----so, I do think much of myself. 

Why do you put so many lines between your sentences, I'm suprised you don't go all CAPS .

Hey buddy... Take a victory lap and grab a participation trophy at the finish line. 

It's my understanding, that the WoO are puting this race on, not Knoxville Raceway.

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It is rumored thar McCarl came out very  well at Park Jefferson.  He did well enough to have put on a WOO show.  I think Knoxville race will net WOO $75,000 to $100,000 IF the internet does not crash.

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