Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

Ok, here goes. If Vegas put out odds I imagine it would look like this...or similar?

Sweet:  Even money

Gravel: 12-5

Macedo: 3-1

Larson:  4-1 

Schatz:  6-1

Schchart:  8-1

Haudenschild: 10-1

Kerry Madsen:  5-1

Gio: 7-1

Tyler Courtney: 7-1

Brian Brown:  12-1

Anyone else:  25-1

History says the winner is coming out of the group not named "anyone else".  If I was betting on those odds I'd go little on Larson and lot on Gravel. 

i would take Larson at those odds large and hedge my bet a little on the field

Larson as only the fourth choice seems really out of whack, IMO. Larson at 4-1 yet Kerry Madsen is at 5-1?

I reckon you're all over it. A few others that could spring up unexpectedly are Eliason, Rico, Marks, Macri, Bayston, McFadden. Not willing to put odds on them though. 

I would disagree.  If Vegas puts odds on the Nats, Kyle is the front-runner.  5-2?  2-1?  

Fun idea though, so I'll give mine:

Larson:      2-1

Sweet:       5-2

Gravel:       3-1

Macedo      5-1

Schatz       5-1

Schuchart:  8-1

Kerry          8-1

McFadden  10-1

Haud        10-1

A-aron disguised as someone else:       12-1

Brownie     12-1

Gio            12-1

Pittman      15-1

TK              20-1

Kahne         20-1      (now that he's in the 83)

S. Stewart   20-1

Bayston      20-1

Courtney    20-1

The field     25-1

I would agree that Larson is favorite. I'd put Gravel second based on last Sunday. With those odds I'd probably bet on Logan S.

After 2019, I would have put Logan at 4-1 for the 2020 Nationals if it had taken place.  However, he has definitely not been as strong in 2021 as we had expected-------though he seems to have come on lately, but has not been closing the deal.  

"A-aron disguised as someone else"   Luke Warmwater?  

Setting odds is not easy, so I'm not going to get all butt hurt if I see something out of whack.

This is a good attempt at what it might look like.  I wish the Iowa books would take on a project like this but it is probably too niche to do it for the action they would get considering the odds would be mainly done out-of-state by folks who have never seen a sprint car race.

Odds are not meant as predictors of what they THINK will happen but an effort to get betting money moving in such a way where The House either A) wins or B) doesn't take a huge loss.  With that philosophy in mind, considering the familiarity more bettors (pro & public) would have seeing Kyle Larson's name (and not having a clue on most of the others) I think Yung Money would be closer to the even money favorite, if not a -125 favorite - meaning, for those not familiar with gambling terminology, that you have to bet $125 in order to win $100.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll see Knoxville odds posted one day.  After all we get every Tom-Dick-and-Harry sport in the universe on the big board, why not sprint cars?

Is this heaven?  
No, it's Iowa....Knoxville, Iowa.

Good comments. I only put Larson there to draw that action. I totally understand setting lines to get lot of action and have house rake! I think ton of money comes in on Kyle with those odds, but yes maybe I underestimate his legit chance to win.  Since he hasn't done it yet and hasn't had success there and how hard this format is, I thought Sweet should be the clear cut favorite.  Early action on Kyle would prob make book pause and drop more around 2-1. This was just me taking a stab and having at least a little more gambling knowledge than the average bloke. Ha. Also, I stand by my og comment about the field and the winner coming about of that small group. Now if this was meant to be more fun,  we'd have odds to win, place, show.  Or finish top 5. Etc...

Listen to Corey Kneeshaw and Sprintcarunlimited's free show today.

Very good points.  I guess I was putting odds on the driver with the assumption that is was "for fun" and all of the bets would be placed by die-hard fans.  You are correct though.  If Vegas actually did put odds on the Knoxville Nationals, 98% of America would put a bet on Larson and turn it into a potential huge loss.  He would be even money at best, you are correct.  If we got 100,000 sprint car fans to bet, you might be able to leave him as a + bet.  

Are there really people out there that would bet $125 to win $100?

I'd say the odds look pretty good that the winner will be from California.

I will take donny the man schatz u can have the rest!

Sure, there are. You do know that you would get your $125 back + the $100, right? The total payout on such a bet would be $225.

Thanks. I didn't know that, but I do now.

Im a degenerate gambler. Them odds are pretty close. I think our op should set up a site. I've bet many a $ on nascar and never made $.

Interesting to see how things have changed in only 2 days.  I'd say that Macedo, Sheldon Haudenschild and Kerry Madsen's odds to win took a backslide.

Looks like the #57 can run the bottom or top, so I'd say it's Kyles Nationals to lose at this point.