Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

I'm putting a pool together for our Knoxville group this year.  I'm curious how everyone would rank the favorites to win the Nats?  (Not with your heart, but with your head)

I had a few in my group give me their top 50 in order.  Once we averaged those polls, this is how the top-10 shook out.  There are going to be some major differences, because some did not listen to my instructions and clearly voted with their hearts.  Anyways, thoughts on how our ranking came out?  

1. Gravel

2.  Rico

3. Timms

4. Day

5. Reutzel

6. Ca. Macedo

7. Logan

8. Macri

9. Sheldon

10. Marks

PS--Larson was left off the list and will not be available to pick

Good list.  Gravel is #1 with Rico not far behind.  I think Timms, even though he is the defending champion, is over-rated.  Logan and Sheldon, especially with how they are running right now, should be rated higher.  That may also hold true for Marks - he seems to have woken up in the last month.  Macri is also in this category.  Not sure how to judge Day - he's fast, but not sure he is as sharp as he needs to be since he hasn't been in the car that much.  Macedo - I can never predict what he'll do.  Wouldn't be surprised if he won nor would I be suprised if he was in the C main Saturday night.

I'm sure it was just an oversight that Brownie was left of the list......JK.

Others not mentioned that could be top 10 - Pittman, Austin, and J-Mac.  Seems like J-Mac falls off Saturday night, but has been tough during his qualifying nights.

If larson is there he has to be the favorite. If he is not there its pretty wide open I think. Nobody has shown this year to be heads above the others at knoxville. Of all those on your list if they hit it right Saturday any of them could win it. 

Your thoughts are pretty much exactly how my list played out before it was averaged with the others.  I had Logan and Sheldon above Timms.  Day was a wildcard for me as well---he's either fast as hell, or nowhere to be found.  Marks--spot on.  He has been 'meh' at best since his ridiculous year a few years back.  Suddenly, he looks to be pretty damned fast, and I was in attendance when he came to the front at Knoxville in June.  Very impressive.  

Brownie?  I had him up on my list further than others.  The dude was actually faster last year than he's been at the Nationals in 10 years.  But, that ended when he hit the wall on qualifying night.  He was one of the fastest cars on the track that night.  Winning car?  Nah.  But fast!  

Pittman, Austin, and J-Mac made a couple of lists, but fell just below this top-10 when averaged, so they are right there.  

Yes, we just kept Larson off of our list since he is unlikely for Saturday night.  If he was on the list, I think he's the easiest pick for everyone except for The Chaz.  And I agree with you---anyone on our top-10 list has the ability to win it.  After last year's "upset", I don't count anyone out anymore.  Especially if Larson can't be there.  

I'm glad Timms won it when Larson was in the field so no one could say "he only won it because Kyle wasn't there."  

With Larson being out, I would say the favorites going in are Rico, Gravel, Timms, and maybe Reutzel. It would depend on how their qualifying nights go and how they look there on how I would rank them going into Saturday. The Outlaw races and even the regular shows that have had outsiders come in are good indicators but once Wednesday and Thursday come, it is a different beast. Usually 1 of the favorites has issues in 1 of those night. We've seen in recent years Gravel, Reutzel, Rico, even Schatz in his dominance have issues and put them behind. 

The 3 X factors I have are Day, Macedo, Kofoid.

Day - Working for him is his driving style. Can be agressive which you need to be. Work against him, his driving style. Can be agressive which can bite you. Some of you will understand this. Others......

Macedo - Would not sleep on him. I would not bet the house on him but I also would not be shocked. He has looked strong at Knoxville and outside of Timms last year, had the next strongest car for a majority of the race. The JJR team is always great at Knoxville. Not sure if he will have the Ford or if he can be patience to not overdrive the car in his prelim night. If he can start in the top 5, I think he does have a legit shot

Kofoid - No real reason here. Prior performance does not indicate he's a favorite but he has what, 10wins this year and can run well at big money shows. For him it will come down to getting through his qualifying night. That has been his achillies heel each year.

Sleepers - Schuchart, Haudenschild, Scelzi. 

So much can happen during the preliminary nights that it would be an exercise in futility to parrot the same top ten names in a slightly different order. There are a lot of story lines to follow every year and I tend to go with those that are considered underdogs.  The best thing going IMHO is that Larson can't run the Feature this year and take the big check away from career Sprint Car drivers who need the money more than a NASCAR millionaire. 

Stan Meissner

Unfortunately that'll be the narrative for the dorks this year...."but Kyle wasn't there". 

I agree with your top 3, and probably put Day as my 4th. He's really good there and if he has a good qualifying night, could be tough. 

I think of the past few years of NASCAR ringers taking the top prize from career Sprint Car drivers.  My opinion isn't about his talent, nobody can make a case that he's not on his own level.  I'm just not into NASCAR ringers regardless of who they are and especially series owners.  Things always come around full circle and I'm sure I'm not the only one but I watch regardless because It's all just entertainment like an other televised sport.  

Stan Meissner

I couldn't agree more!

Well, if we're talking wild cards, where does Schatz land on most people's list?

Extremely wild, sad to say....

Here are the SprintCarRatings.com current 2026 ratings and which day each are on...

2026 Knoxville Nationals Prelim Night Rating Data

Not sure how I didn't mention Buddy, but you are right, he should be one of the favorites because he has been solid all year.

Sheldon seems to have learned what Day is now trying to learn.  Balance that aggression and show it only when needed.

I do think Brownie has a chance.  He's got a solid operation, he knows Knoxville and he seems to have the desire.  Not sure if his hand/wrist is healed well enough for 50 laps, but I think he is still in the conversation.

He cracked the top 10 on one of our lists, but the others had him 11th-15th.  

I only needed to wait until later the same day that I posted to watch the 57 charge through the field.  Never mind that most of the 360 drivers work a regular job m-f.  I'd be willing to bet that a large portion of the field houses and works on their cars out of some two and a half car garage.  Along comes the guy from NC and does the equivalent of punching a kid and taking his school lunch money.  
 

I'm not a "hater" but tend to not base my personal opinions on what the majority thinks.  I can appreciate a once in a lifetime talent but he makes it look so damn easy it kind of takes the wind out of my sails when they unload.  That opinion will gain some traction if the "anybody but _____" signs of the past are any indication.  When a stock car driver can drop in and kick ass on career Sprint Car drivers at will it's bound to stir things up eventually.  
 

The HL WoO rivalry shouldn't be the issue.  It should be how can the 57 drop in and beat career Sprint Car drivers at will.  Older ones among us recall Tony Stewart trying to win a WoO race for years before he nabbed one.  Anyways, my prediction is that Kyle Larson wins the 360 Nationals.  

Stan Meissner