Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

Just for fun, if you were a bookmaker in vegas, and asked to place odds on drivers to win the Knoxville Nationals, what order and odds would you place on them?   (This is just for fun---not meant as a driver popularity contest)     I picked my top 20 starting odds.  I had to pick Larson as my highest odds because he's the defending champ of the event and was VERY fast both nights against all of these guys at the June Outlaw show.  He was actually the fastest car on the track both nights.  

4-1       Larson

5-1       Gravel

            Schatz

8-1      Logan

           Sweet

           Macedo

           Day

           Rico

           Gio

12-1   Sunshine

           Marks

           Reutzel

15-1    Kofoid

           Sheldon

           Peck

           McFadden

           Pittman

20-1    Madsen

           A. McCarl

           Brown

           Macri

I like it!   I would probably switch spots with Macedo and Sunshine, but overall I think that's good.  

I think your order is mostly fine but I think your book would go broke paying 4-1 or better on the top three cars. I'd reckon the odds of Larson, Schatz or Gravel winning have to be like 80-90%?

Feel like realistically if books spread odds you'd see like +175 for Larson and +200/+225 for Gravel and Schatz. 

As I said, just for fun.  I'm not educated on how to make the books work out. 

I don't really know about that, but I figure I lose money any time I go into a casino.  I'd lose in any casino Egras owns too.   

Agreed. You'd have a ton of public money and casuals betting Larson as well as Gravel and Schatz. So you'd want to disincentivize a ton of people to bet that. I could put $100 each on the top 3 and still make $100 if one those three won. 

I'd actually drop Larson to -105, Gravel to +120, and Schatz to +200. It's a fun exercise to do and I thought for the most part your stuff looked pretty good.

And of course once money started coming in, you would adjust the odds.

Thanks Johnny.  I was just doing it for fun and was just kinda going for a list of favorites in order.  I'm not a sports bettor at all.  I play poker quite often, but I have literally bet on 5 sporting events in my entire life!  I hate being out of control of my money!     

Larson

Gravel / Schatz / Sweet

Logan/ Day / Rico / Reutzel / 

AMAC/ Macedo/ Gio/ 

Courtney/ Marks/ Kofoid/ Haud/ McFadden / Brown

Macri/ Pittman/ Marks/ Peck / Bayston/ Hafertepe/ Axsom

Holmes/ Garet Williamson/ Allen/ Madsen, 

Keep It Real

Larson, Gravel, Schatz and one other driver TBD that will look really good on Wed/Thurs are your favorites. For all the talk that 15-20 drivers can win it, it's a short list in reality. 

Truthfully, in the modern day, let's  say post 1985, who would we say had the longest odds that actually won the thing?

Shaffer in 2010?

Scruffy in 1990?

Johnson in 2016?

My call would be Tim Shaffer, but I was definitely surprised how well Jason Johnson ran in 2016 throughout the whole race. How was Bobby Allen running in 1990 in the leadup to that race. Christ, I was young and watched it on my parents couch on TNN courtesy of American Sports Cavalcade.

I remember Mark Kinser was running like a raped ape early on til he broke.

My guess would be Bobby's win in 90. 

I'd have to with Shaffer, he wasn't running much with WoO not even top 20 in points or starts.  Bobby was running a bunch ofbWoO races that year and was like top 15 in points right after the full timers.  Jason was full time as well and coming on strong.  I'd lean Shaffer though