Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

Been hearing a lot of reasons why Donny Schatz is no longer at the level he was 10 years ago.  Ford engines and departure of Ricky Warner seem to be the most popular excuses.  I've always maintained that Donny is simply in the twighlight of his prime years, and the age and talent of the rest of the top-tier Outlaws is as good as it's ever been.  Not that Ricky Warner wasn't a big factor in Donny's success.  Not that the implementation of a new motor program wouldn't upset every other team in America.  It's just that I feel the greatest factor is simply his age.  I am just slightly older than Donny and my body/mind/reaction times are markedly less than they were 10 years ago.  I cannot imagine how much these things are affected in a race car, especially a 410 sprint car.  I never needed statistics to feel this way, but I had some spare time this morning and I wanted to see if my theory held any water.  I picked 13 drivers off the top of my head, and researched them in their main professional discipline(s). 

Kinser:   (Woo)                 Peak wins:  age 25-45        Wins after 45:  158 of his 690  (23%)  

              (Knoxville Nats) Peak wins:   age 27-41        Nats wins after 45:  1 of his 12

Sammy  (woo)                Peak wins:  age 26-45          Wins after 45:  47 of his 394  (12%)

                                       12 wins at age 57

Lasoski  (Woo)               Peak wins:  age 40-45         Wins after 45:  18 of his 122 (15%)

              (Knoxville Nats) All wins:  age 39-45   

AJ Foyt  (Champ/CART) Peak wins:  age 26-44         Wins after 45:  1 of his 67   (1.5%)

              (Nascar)            Peak wins: age 29-37          Wins after 45:  0 of his 7 in 128 starts

Mario Andretti  (Indy)      Peak wins:  ages 26-29 and 43-48    Wins after 45:  10 of his 52  (20%)

                        (Nascar)  Peak wins:  age 27             Wins after 45:  0 of his 1

                       (F1)          Peak wins:  36-38               Wins after 45:  0 of his 12

Al Unser Jr. (Indy)           Peak wins:  age 26-32        Wins after 45:  0 of his 34 

Petty:                              Peak wins:   age 30-34       Wins after 45:  5 of his 200   (2.5%)

Earnhardt Sr.:                 Peak wins:   age 36-39        Wins after 45:  6 of his 76   (8%)

Jeff Gordon:                  Peak wins:   age 24-28        Wins after 45:  0 of his 93

Rusty Wallace:              Peak wins:   age 37-40        Wins after 45:  2 of his 55 (4%)

Mark Martin:                 Peak wins:    age 34-42       Wins after 45:  7 of his 40  (17.5%)

David Pearson:            Peak wins:   age 34-42        Wins after 45:  2 of his 105 (2%)

Tony Stewart: (Nascar) Peak wins:  age 28-41         Wins after 45:  1 of his 49 (2%)

I know it's a lot of stats, but I'm a stats guy because they don't lie.  Donny is right on pace with the average that the great drivers in their discipline begin to see a decline in their wins.  There are some anomolies with Kinser and Sammy's great season at 56-57 years of age.  But as a whole, you can expect the average driver to win less and less after the age of 40 and certainly after 45.  What's wrong with Jeff Gordon?  Well, it's gotta be the departure of Ray Evernham.  What's wrong with Dale Sr?  It can't be his age and the emergence of Gordon.  What's wrong with Kinser?  It's gotta be the split with Karl.  Can't be getting older and a guy named Schatz, can it?  

So, what's wrong with Donny?  Nothing!  He's just nearing the end of his career.  It happens to every, single driver.  Yes I know Ricky left.  Drivers lose their top guys.  Yes he put in a Ford, and I'm sure it was difficult.  But there are a few other names having much more of an impact than Ford or Warner.  Those names?  Gravel.  Sweet.  Macedo. Schuchart.  Sheldon.  Rico.  Marks.  Oh yeah, and a guy named Larson.  Couple those names with the fact that he's beyond the average age the guys above began to decline, how the hell can anyone expect him to continue at the pace he was going.  Did you honestly think if he had Ricky and a Chevy he would be winning 25 times per year until he was 55?  

" body/mind/reaction times are markedly less than they were 10 years ago"

Yeah, and we're talking tenths of a second here. Dirtrackr daily reported the other day that the outlaw qualifying time difference between  1st and 15th has shrunk to 4 tenths in the last 5 years. So the fast guy ten years ago plus a couple tenths factored in for his age doesn't make the dash - finishes 10th - 15th. Coinkydink, I don't think so.

Donny can magically shave 10 years off at the big races sometimes though. 

And, maybe a guy can compensate some for those lost tenths by staying on the porch - not so much at a different track every week.

" I'm a stats guy because they don't lie"

Of course not, lying is an intentional act by humanoids. Stats are just numbers, but they can be deceiving at times. The flaw in your argument is that most of them raced a lot more years  before 45 than after. Kinser, for example: You list wins from ages 25 -45. Thats 20 years... how many years did he race after 45?

I'm not saying age isn't a factor, it clearly is. But I don't think your stats prove that its the MAIN factor. My take on it is that aging  happens gradually. Donny's wins declined drastically as soon as he started using the "Ford".... & I'm a "Ford guy"

Like most things, probably a combination of factors...

Based on those stats from the open wheel drivers, I wonder if Gravel and Macedo hitting their peaks now has something to do with it?  So maybe Donnie's slowed but also his competitors got faster as well.

Probably a combination of factors for sure, but age is the main reason he will never be where he was before.

You say "the flaw in your argument is that most of them raced a lot more before 45 than after"   True.  Why though?  Why not keep racing as many races after 45 as before?  We all know why.  They get older and less competitive and then suddenly, much less competitive.  None of the 13 drivers on my list improved after 45.  All 13 drivers on the list had a drastic fall in the win column before they retired.  Many of them won no races for years before they retired.  Yes, Donny's wins declined drastically, but so do many of the drivers on my list.  

Al Unser Jr. did not win a single race his last 4 years from ages 34-37   (72 races)

Richard Petty did not win a single race his last 8 years from ages 47-54  (231 races)   His drastic decline was between ages 42 and 44

Jeff Gordon's drastic decline came around 2008 at the age of 36.  He won 12 races in 324 starts over his last 9 seasons and had 1 win in his last 72 starts after age 43 and went winless in his last season.  

Just a few examples I picked out.  Of course they ran fewer races after 45.  They weren't as competitive.  

Absolutely!  Donny doesn't have to suck.  Donny is still in his prime, but he's quickly approaching the end of that prime.  The other drivers are either just getting there, or at the "start" of their peak now!  It's a game of tenths or even hundredths of a second!

I think losing Ricky and implementing Ford definitely cost Donny another big season or 2. One thing to keep in mind, drivers of the current era put much more emphasis on physical fitness than most did in previous eras. Sammy always kept himself in great shape. Hence the reason he can still be pretty good at times even now at his age. Donny got on that boat a little later in his career but has been in peak physical condition for awhile now. I think his decline is a combination of all factors. His program at TSR definitely declined in recent years but he's at that age when most start to lose their edge. It should be interesting to see if there's any longevity difference when guys like Macedo, Schuchart, Sweet, Larson etc. start getting to that age because they've been on board with physical fitness from day one. Interesting thing about those stats is, The King still had some pretty damn good numbers after age 45 and he was probably in the worst shape of all of the guys you listed. I personally think that he could've been in his prime well into his 50's had he taken better care of himself. He was just THAT good. 

Steve had a comparably amazing run after 45, but part of that was guys retiring or pulling back during or slightly after their primes. Mark Kinser, Andy Hillenburg and Stevie Smith had they been able to stick with the full time grind definitely would have taken wins and potentially championships from Steve during his post 45 years. Schatz going through these downward years with competition as fierce as it is doesn't help. 

A couple of things:  

Kinser was the exception to the rule, not the rule

Also, the key to how dominate guys like Macedo, Schuchart, Sweet, and Larson can remain depends on when the next group of Macedo's, Schuchart's, Sweet's and Larson's join the WoO.  You know there's a group of young talent driving karts right now.  If you get 2 or 3 unbelievable talents in the WoO in 10 years, and they start winning, everyone will say "what's wrong with Larson?"  Must be because he doesn't drive for Silva anymore..........that's gotta be it........................(It wouldn't be because he's 41...........)

Still one of the best.Father time has not lost a race yet and there are several talented young  aggresive drivers with equal equiptment.Guys like Red Farmer.Ken Schrader.Danny Smith and Sammy are doing it for the love of the game.Donny can still win but there are drivers that try to win at all costs and He drives with more respect which some drivers have none.

Motor development program,  crew chief change, his father's passing, more responsibility with home life. A lot of change in a few short years.  Shatz hasn't forgot how to drive. He just doesn't have the option of directing all his time to the car and driving. If the cars right he is still a threat to win any race. 

Yea thats Factor #4... young guys getting better

All the factors contribute

Good discussion, no personal attacks... well done, Hosers!

I agree, some things have changed.   Noone stays on top forever anyway.   Winning Knoxville last year and the Kings Royal this year doesn't sound like that serious of a decline.   JMO

As alum427 said, he's a threat to win each week.  He's just no longer a threat to win EVERY week.  

And 99% of the drivers out there would take that for their careers Donny is in the 1% and deserves everything he's got or gonna have.

I didn't read anyone's post other than browsed the basically everyone posts at 40/45. My $.02 Donny is amazing obviously one of the best ever absolutely.  Take away the Ricky thing the Ford thing here's what I have noticed from my living room and everything I say is with the upmost respect to the man. The last few years I cannot imagine trying to keep my focus on racing while running a big business with so many moving parts while my father who has always been by my side and idol is fighting the fight of his life just to stay alive. And the part that I believe is really hard is Donny is the cleanest racer in the country cause he raced with Steve sammy ect and they demanded you raced that way or you'd get knocked on your ass. The fact that he can win as much as he does racing like a gentleman and not like a chop blocking kid, like the rest of them is more impressive than all his wins put together.  Sorry about the novel but I've been holding that back for awhile. 

I actually agree with this. Any of the other stuff aside, this is totally a thing. I've always said that Donny would have even more wins if he wasn't such a clean racer. And in today's era, he's entirely too clean. The current crop of drivers on not just the WoO tour but nationwide it seems, they use each other up. Not to rehash the Danny/Freddie thing but I LOL at Dietrich talking about Freddie chopping people when I see him, Marks & literally every other driver who wins regularly doing the same shit literally every weekend. Guys are constantly knocking front wings off from close sliders anymore. I think a lot of it is a product of dirty air and overall parity in the sport. At Port Royal for instance, you almost stand no chance of winning if you're not willing to throw death sliders & squeeze people to the wall. Mike Wagner is sitting high in the points in large part because he's an absolute prick to pass. He's perfected the art of blocking and disturbing the air for the car behind him trying to pass him. I swear he drives more with his ears than his eyes. But that's almost what you gotta do to be good in this day and age. Donny definitely isn't that type or driver. He never was but in the current era, it's more of a disadvantage now than ever before yet he's still pretty good which like you said, is very impressive in it's own rite.

this sounds like a guy who has every reason to feel burned out.  puts an interesting perspective on the macri situation.  resiliency isn't really a thing any more.

i'll also add that if i'm still doing things in my career that are the equivalent to winning crown jewel races like the kings royal and knoxville nationals...i will take that "decline" in a second.

The answer is pretty simple...more competition than ever on the WoO, by teams with talented drivers and deep pockets.  Steve had to beat at best 2-3 top full time teams nightly in his heyday.  Schatz has to beat Gravel, Macedo, Sweet, Schuchart, Haudenschild at the highest tier then a slight dropoff to Bayston, Scelzi, Zearfoss.  Then thrown in part-timers like Marks, Rico, McFadden, Kofoid, Reutzel, Peck.

The field is deeper than it's ever been.  Ten years ago two teams finished the season within 600 points of the leader.  (Pittman was champ, Schatz, McMahan).  There are currently seven teams within 600 points of the lead.  Schatz isn't necessarily slowing down - a lot more people caught up.

This is the golden era of sprint car racing, enjoy it.

The guys at the top of their game had mental toughness, laser like focus, and prepared like no other. Jordan, Tiger, Kobe, are great examples of this. 

Donny is the modern day Steve Kinser and is lucky enough to race against the greats of who we consider some of the best ever and the racers of today. And like everyone else has said a combo of age, motor change, mechanic change, family, not even counting the level of competition have affected performance. 

We're also in a period of time where some of the racers in the top levels have been racing since they were 5-6. which means the young guns are already more prepared than the racers were 20-30 years ago at the same age. 

Obviously many teams have great equipment, and why it's special when we see someone dominate like Kyle Larson, or the run that the KKR and Brad Sweet are having. 

Keep It Real