Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

And the car won in 2016. Plus Gravel is a tremendously gifted driver who is very good at Knoxville. 

I dont get it, the 69k hasnt been that great lately and people still are including him in posts like these. Right now id give the edge to the 48 if i had to choose who from pa would do the best. 

C'mon, let's be honest here.......

75% Schatz

25% Sweet

Everyone else is racing for third.

Original poster went out on a limb with this pick... who knows?

I'd love to see Schuchart win it

But then the debate will  begin whether he's Posse or Outlaw! ;)

I'll settle for "Posse Alumni"

Tier 1- Sweet, Schatz, Larson.

Tier 2- Gravel, Brown, Schuchart, Gio.

Tier 3-  Rest of the WoO roster. Ruetzel, Eliason, Knoxville Regulars and definitely JMAC. Gotta remember this ain't the Matt Highlands 3 coming out this year. (Which is no slouch of a ride by any means.) He has outlaw speed with KKR and the raw talent to get it done. I bet he starts it off early and hammers everybody at Pevely. 

I must be missing something on McFadden. Without digging deep, I don't know if I'd have him in top 10 or 15. 

Yes, he ran well last week with All Stars winning a pair, but only a handful of podium finishes in about 10-15 Outlaw starts and most telling, finishes of 13th and 16th with the Outlaws in June and only mustering an eight place finish with the All Stars in three appearances at Knoxville doesn't inspire confidence. 

Also, I don't think he's running Pevely - thought I saw he has a 360 to run Knoxville this weekend. 

True....  Ever since they hurt their Brown motor at Mansfield they haven’t been the same. Not sure if it has anything to do with the motor or is just a matter of chance.  Don’t get me wrong, they have been fast (won several speed week shows etc) but they haven’t been lights out dominate like they have been.

Good God we are talking like they are in a terrible slump by finishing 6th in their last 2 outlaw shows....  Oh the horror LOL.  Most teams would kill to struggle that badly.  

Reutzel has really settled into Knoxville, he runs it well. He is definitely a contender !! But in my opinion, he's is still under the category of a dark horse contender. Just because he's only ran the 410 Nationals a few times. But those few times he's done better than not. Year before last he ran from 17th to 7th and last year he started 5th and finished 4th with a hard charging field behind him and the 3 top tier drivers in front of him .... I'm hoping for a first time winner this year. My pick is Shuchart or Reutzel ....

     Always root for the underdog! :). This one has some things going for him:
He's won some WoO races.
He's getting better all the time.
He inhereted some racing genes (see 1990 Knoxville Nationals winner).
He's got a good crew chief (see 1990 Knoxville Nationals winner).

Over the last 40 years there have been about 4 surprise winners:
Time Shaffer 2010
Kraig Kinser 2005
Steve Kinser (yes) 2002
Bobby Allen 1990

I don't think anyone is saying they're in a terrible slump, but we're talking about a potential winner for the biggest race in the world with a format that damn near demands perfection at every turn, so I would say that failing to podium against WoO on your home track isn't a great look if you want to be considered a contender at a place you are clearly less familiar with.

Lets just face the facts: Odds on favorite has to be The Colfax Comet, Robert Bell! ;)

Yeah I think you're right about him running 360 nats instead of I55.  Ehhh. Not sure how I feel about that. But...not my car, not my money. 

I think you are pretty close.  I agree with earlier poster that Logan is a Tier 1B.  I would also put Lance at the very top of Tier 3.  But, you have the general idea.  :)

Also agree with the idea that Logan did win his chance last year by missing the scales.  He very well could have been a factor all of Saturday night had he not done that!

Maybe I've got a little more posse in me than I care to admit and I'm biased but I won't count that team out. It's HIGHLY unlikely that they win but I won't completely dismiss the possibility. If they can make the show with a decent starting spot, they could shock the world. Long races are right in their wheelhouse. Would I bet money on them? Can't say I would but they surprised me with how quickly and drastically they improved when they were out there earlier this season.

Brown times well so if he can get into the A on his qualifying night he should be fine. Same with Ian and Kerry, both past champions at Knoxville and know the track well. 

Each of those 3 have their own driving style, with Brown being the best at the bottom IMO. Kerry bangs the cushion the best and Ian seems to be able to move around the track more vs being a smoother driver like Brown

After Brad Sweet and DS I think Larson has the best chance to time well, make it through his heat, and do well in his A main. And after watching last week drive anywhere he wanted to, I'd almost put him above BB, however it was one race.

Donnie, Brad,

Brown, Kerry, Ian, Gravel

All 6 of these guys can time well.

I'd put Logan and A-Aron next, along side Shane. 

Top Wednesday Night Qualifiers Night 2018 (A main finish) 

Schuchart (scales)

Kerry (9th) 

Reutzel ((8)

Schatz (5)

Ian(6)

Pittman(11)

Jeffrey (Bmain)

Kasey Kahne (Bmain)

Kyle Larson (3)

Gio (4)

Hodnett Won the A but timed 17th

Top Thursday Night Qualifiers (A Main finish)

Macedo (9)

Kemenah (6)

Jacob Allen (12)

Brad Sweet (1) 

PPM (14)

Scott Bogucki (B main)

Trey Starks (B main

Paige Polyak (17)

 Shane Stewart (8)

Carson McCarl (B main)

Keep It Real

I disagree.  (doesn't mean it won't end up with Shatz 1 and Sweet 2 as they have to be the favorites)

I think if Vegas had to put it the way you did with percentages, it would be:

Schatz 25%--because of his past record there

Sweet 25%--equal in my book--defending champ and slightly better than the 15 this year

Gravel 20%--bad fast at Knoxville---just a bad 2018 showing

Larson 20%--bad fast anywhere and always a factor

Rest of field 10%---with Logan leading that pack and Pittman a close 2nd.  

Gravel has been proven to be bad fast.  Larson has finished top 3 in this race more than once and took the lead last year past halfway.  They are formidable opponents.  

Just my opinion though.  

I’d give Schatz the 2nd best odds given his track record but it could be argued it’s been since 2015 that he’s been the fastest car at the Nationals.He got beat 2016 and 2018 and in 2017 Gravel had the best car but broke. 

Very good points

Not many outlaws in the A. Lots of locals.

Makes it interesting.  Good to see.

Even though I may not know you, I 
care what most of you think!