Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

Does anyone have the link to the drivers list for the One and Only next weekend at Knoxville?  From a couple of driver's posts I've read, it's limited and full.  Anyone confirm?

How do we know this is in fact "The One and Only"???  If this sh!t dont go away, Will next year be "The 2nd and Hopefully Last"!!!! and so on and so on....

Great post! 

And the:

"Third Times a Charm", "Four for Four", and "One for the Thumb"  

Seriously though, I hope this is it the "One and Only."  By this time next year, even without a vaccine, over 50% of the US population will have had it---maybe even 60 or 70%.  That won't be good for number of deaths, as we'd likely be looking at over a million deaths, but the rate of spread would be at pretty low levels by that point as spreading it would be much more difficult without vulnerable hosts.  I think by late-fall or early-winter it will be spreading throughout the US at a rate that far surpasses the early spreads in New York City.  It may be ugly for the hospitals and all of our friends/relatives in health care, but the worst will be over by spring of 2021.  It will follow the pattern of the last few pandemics and this upcoming wave will be nasty followed by a 3rd, less severe wave next fall.  

Even if we get 60,000 new Covid-19 cases per day, it would take over 15 years to infect all 330 million in the US. So to get to 50% it would take over 7 1/2 years. Now if the infection cases get to 100k to 150k per day you would see hospitals all over the country overrun and the death rates soar unless or until a antibody treatment for Covid-19 patients is developed. 

So I hope a antibody treatment is approved soon(much easier to get approval than a vaccine).

Rod

Sorry that your honest question has been ignored or hijacked. If I had any info relevant to the drivers list I would share it.

I thot there was already enough threads hijacked by covid the posts could stay there. Darn virus infects forum threads as fast as people.

Even though I may not know you, I 
care what most of you think!

The 60k is only confirmed cases, there are so many more people that get infected and recover with very minimal to no symptoms that never get tested or evaluated so they do not get recorded as a case. Testing was very lacking in March-May that it's extremely likely we recorded at best 10% of cases in that period, probably much lower. Testing now has ramped up but still a good guess would be maybe getting 40% of the infections as cases. 

60,000 cases per day would be fantastic.................but that is not how these types of virus outbreaks play out.  Every single pandemic in history follows the same pattern.  Initial breakout, followed by a quick drop in cases facilitated by warmer weather, then a second, more severe wave when conditions are once again ripe for spread.  That would be this fall/winter.  Cases will not "slow-burn" through the population as they are now.  Expect exponential growth once schools open this fall and people are forced back inside.  The 60,000 cases per day will turn into 120,000 cases per day in a matter of days, then 240,000, then 480,000......etc.  (This is of course without mitigation and shutdowns----which nobody really wants again)

And, before anyone starts throwing nasty names at me, I am in favor of schools opening back up----I'm a teacher and so is my wife.  I have kids in school.  I think schools should be open until they can't be.  I think businesses should be open until they can't be.  I think sporting events should happen until they can't.  When is "can't be" you may ask?  It will be much clearer to see when "can't" is during the second batch of this shit.  

Also, as someone else pointed out, 60,000 is confirmed.  Likely many times more than that.  If you mix and match the different studies (as they are all different, but in the same ballpark) there are likely already 30-50 million people in the U.S. who have had this.  We are one our way to herd immunity.  Once the nastiness of wave #2 has passed, we will be over 1/2 way there.  

I've got history on my side with this prediction.  

Where in the world do you get informed like that?

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or if you are being serious.  If sarcasm, I apologize. 

If you are serious, this is not hard to predict.  Back in the 80's, for a project, I had to research the information of the past pandemics using the school library and encylopedias.  The same information from these books can be found online---it takes seconds to find it and the information is exactly the same as it was 30+ years ago.  Pre-1900's, pandemics lasted for very long periods of time because they spread so slow around the world.  (smallpox for example)  In the 1900's, they spread much quicker and developed a pattern which is very predictable.  The Spanish Flu spread much like a pandemic of today because of the deployment of troops for WW1.  The virus was thought to have originated on a pig farm in the midwest, and was quickly spread throughout Europe by a pig farmer heading off to war.  The pattern for all of these outbreaks has been pretty much the same.  A small outbreak where 5-15% of the population is exposed in an area followed by a drop in cases.  Then, there is a second, more pronounced and severe outbreak in the fall/winter.  This wave usually results in exponential spread---which is where you have the cases doubling every so many days for example.  The second wave results in the highest percentage of infection.  Finally, there is usually a 3rd outbreak the following fall/winter which is the mildest of the 3.  The 3rd wave is the smallest and weakest because the majority of the population is already immune and spread cannot happen as easily. 

I'm not going to argue with anyone who says we are taking things too far.  I personally believe we have gone a bit overboard on the shutdowns, etc.  Some mitigation was needed, especially early on.  However, we understand now that this virus is not the deadly killer we once thought and treatments have brought death rates down quickly.  That said, it's too early to declare victory until we see what the inevitable second wave gives us.  Will it overwhelm the health care system?  Will it become deadlier as viruses tend to do when the air is drier and colder?  We don't know.  Hopefully it doesn't live up to the past outbreaks of novel viruses.  But the pattern is there from the past and that is why many experts are still worried while the rest of the redneck world continues to blow it off.  From a personal health perspective, I'm not all that concerned.  From an economic standpoint and the stress that could come from the second wave on our rural hospital, I'm very concerned.  Especially for my older friends and those that work in health care.  

This isn't rocket science and voodoo.  It's pretty well recorded throughout history.  

I wish people would quit posting things about sprint racing on a covid 19 discuusion board.

I agree. Way too much deep focused racing convo here. Bring back the bugs!!

Has the OP ever got an answer??

Even though I may not know you, I 
care what most of you think!

To be fair, I started this thread and all I asked for was the driver's list for the One and Only.  It morphed into this.  

      I hear you. Who would want to talk about racing or anything else that gets their mind off the same-old-shit regurgitated 24 hours a day, 7 days a week?

No list yet but many assumptions can be made. The 360 nightly lists are out. To me that's way more interesting as I like splitting the field and getting some potentially new winners in there. Repeat winners are for the birds (or Larson)

all the covid info is awesome.I cant seem to find any worth while info from the traditional news outlets. So I come to hoseheads where all the experts are.

I remember a comment from a driver (can't remember who) that said they did not get registered in time for the One and Only---sounded like the list was full?  Makes me wonder how many are signed in.

I also agree with your assessment that the split field is exciting.  However, I would be curious to know if they have enough 410's to split the field?  I wonder if we can expect 80% of a normal field or 50%.  I really don't care to tell you the truth, all the heavy-hitters will be there, but just curious to see how many were allowed and/or signed in.  

I thought the 48 car cap in April wouldn't even been hit and I was wrong. I'd hate to make assumptions of a 64 car field but won't be surprised either way. With a cap of, 64 split field would not be preferred. Just not enough racing. Show could be over by 8:30 and if not I watched hours of breaks.

I would say that the race at I-55 earlier this year that had over 60cars is a pretty good indicator. I think everyone can rattle off 30-40names pretty good along with all of the heavy hitters. 60+cars for 3 straight days is a pretty great night anywhere. I have not really seen anything on social media from anyone stating that they made the list. Saw a couple locals state that they did not get registered in time but other than that, no one has stated offically.

Ok, so you saw the same thing with some not getting registered in time?  That means they must've put a limit on cars----which is probably good.