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J&J
May 16, 2016 at 10:21:26 PM
Joined: 08/17/2012
Posts: 289
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Just would like to hear everyone's opion  about this weekends racing of who will be the drivers to win. And in advance 

can we Not start a pissing match over posse and Outlaw! Just good clean conversation 




fiXXXer
May 16, 2016 at 10:32:07 PM
Joined: 10/26/2014
Posts: 2530
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Reply to:
Posted By: J&J on May 16 2016 at 10:21:26 PM

Just would like to hear everyone's opion  about this weekends racing of who will be the drivers to win. And in advance 

can we Not start a pissing match over posse and Outlaw! Just good clean conversation 



The missing match is almost a guarantee. Never fails. Anyway, I think wins will go to Dewease and Pittman. Right now the weather looks like shit for Saturday but we're still a long way off. Hopefully the weather cooperates and we see some good racing. It's always great when the WoO come to Pa. 



SprintFan16
MyWebsite
May 17, 2016 at 10:24:49 AM
Joined: 05/03/2007
Posts: 1671
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Given the format change, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a WoO sweep.




larsonfan
May 17, 2016 at 10:57:58 AM
Joined: 03/24/2013
Posts: 1490
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Posted By: SprintFan16 on May 17 2016 at 10:24:49 AM

Given the format change, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a WoO sweep.



I figured we would see that excuse thrown around here if the PA guys get beat on their home turf.....just didn't expect to see it before the Outlaws even crossed the state line into Pennsylvania. 



SprintFan16
MyWebsite
May 17, 2016 at 11:03:46 AM
Joined: 05/03/2007
Posts: 1671
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Posted By: larsonfan on May 17 2016 at 10:57:58 AM

I figured we would see that excuse thrown around here if the PA guys get beat on their home turf.....just didn't expect to see it before the Outlaws even crossed the state line into Pennsylvania. 



Don't get me wrong - not any kind of apologist towards the Posse. The format obviously aids the tour guys now. It will be that way in PA, in OH, Knoxville, etc. Still not any guarantee to win, but would say they're more favored than normal.



Johnny Utah
May 17, 2016 at 11:45:23 AM
Joined: 07/15/2014
Posts: 1258
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2015 Central PA Track Qualifying Results

Lincoln- 1. 27-Greg Hodnett, 12.817; 2. 51S-Stevie Smith, 12.987; 3. 94-Ryan Smith, 13.021; 4. 1-Lucas Wolfe, 13.056; 5. 7-David Gravel, 13.071; 6. 25-Aaron Ott, 13.104; 7. 5-Tyler Ross, 13.123; 8. 1S-Logan Schuchart, 13.128; 9. 87-Alan Krimes, 13.144; 10. 9-Daryn Pittman, 13.170

Posse- 7, Outlaws- 3

Williams Grove 1- - 1. 25-Aaron Ott, 16.611; 2. 21-Brian Montieth, 16.651; 3. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.669; 4. 98H-Dave Blaney, 16.703; 5. 2-Shane Stewart, 16.710; 6. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.726; 7. 9-Daryn Pittman, 16.783; 8. 7S-Jason Sides, 16.789; 9. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.806; 10. 51-Paul McMahan, 16.816

Posse- 3, Outlaws- 6, Neutral- 1

Williams Grove 2-  (FLIGHT 1) 1. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.789; 2. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.873; 3. 48-Danny Dietrich, 16.991; 4. 3-Pat Cannon, 17.002; 5. 29-Kerry Madsen, 17.043 (FLIGHT 2) 1Z-Lucas Wolfe, 16.935; 2. 51-Paul McMahan, 17.031; 3. 19-Stevie Smith, 17.034; 4. 7S-Jason Sides, 17.059; 5. 15-Donny Schatz, 17.097

Posse- 5, Outlaws- 5

Williams Grove 3- (FLIGHT 1)1. 1-Sammy Swindell, 16.742; 2. 19-Stevie Smith, 16.752; 3. 51-Paul McMahan, 16.781; 4. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.784; 5. 3-Pat Cannon, 16.829 (FLIGHT 2) 1. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.831; 2. 25-Aaron Ott, 16.952; 3. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.976; 4. 21-Brian Montieth, 16.978; 5. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.981

Posse- 5, Outlaws- 5 (I included Sammy)

Williams Grove 4- (FLIGHT 1) 1. 51S-Stevie Smith, 18.461; 2. 69K-Justin Henderson, 18.611; 3. 87-Alan Krimes, 18.718; 4. 11C-Cory Haas, 18.779; 5. 1Z-Lucas Wolfe, 18.783 (FLIGHT 2) 1. 21-Brian Montieth, 18.490; 2. 1S-Logan Schuchart, 18.521; 3. 48-Danny Dietrich, 18.551; 4. 15-Donny Schatz, 18.555; 5. 16-Gerard McIntyre, 18.570

Posse- 7, Outlaws- 2, Posse Car/Midwest Driver- 1

Port Royal-  (FLIGHT 1) 1. 9-Daryn Pittman, 16.327; 2. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.346; 3. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.414; 4. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.416; 5. 2-Shane Stewart, 16.462; (FLIGHT 2) 1. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.199; 2. 48-Danny Dietrich, 16.381; 3. 19M-Brent Marks, 16.409; 4. 23-T.J. Stutts, 16.532; 5. 13-Jac Haudenschild, 16.555

Posse- 4, Outlaws- 5, Neutral- 1

Total: Posse- 31, Outlaws- 26, Neutral- 2, Posse Car/Midwest Driver- 1

In the end I would have to say it’ll come down to the pill draw.  An early draw will most likely (not always though) yield a quality qualifying spot.




brandnew
May 17, 2016 at 12:47:58 PM
Joined: 05/04/2015
Posts: 6
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Reply to:
Posted By: Johnny Utah on May 17 2016 at 11:45:23 AM

2015 Central PA Track Qualifying Results

Lincoln- 1. 27-Greg Hodnett, 12.817; 2. 51S-Stevie Smith, 12.987; 3. 94-Ryan Smith, 13.021; 4. 1-Lucas Wolfe, 13.056; 5. 7-David Gravel, 13.071; 6. 25-Aaron Ott, 13.104; 7. 5-Tyler Ross, 13.123; 8. 1S-Logan Schuchart, 13.128; 9. 87-Alan Krimes, 13.144; 10. 9-Daryn Pittman, 13.170

Posse- 7, Outlaws- 3

Williams Grove 1- - 1. 25-Aaron Ott, 16.611; 2. 21-Brian Montieth, 16.651; 3. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.669; 4. 98H-Dave Blaney, 16.703; 5. 2-Shane Stewart, 16.710; 6. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.726; 7. 9-Daryn Pittman, 16.783; 8. 7S-Jason Sides, 16.789; 9. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.806; 10. 51-Paul McMahan, 16.816

Posse- 3, Outlaws- 6, Neutral- 1

Williams Grove 2-  (FLIGHT 1) 1. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.789; 2. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.873; 3. 48-Danny Dietrich, 16.991; 4. 3-Pat Cannon, 17.002; 5. 29-Kerry Madsen, 17.043 (FLIGHT 2) 1Z-Lucas Wolfe, 16.935; 2. 51-Paul McMahan, 17.031; 3. 19-Stevie Smith, 17.034; 4. 7S-Jason Sides, 17.059; 5. 15-Donny Schatz, 17.097

Posse- 5, Outlaws- 5

Williams Grove 3- (FLIGHT 1)1. 1-Sammy Swindell, 16.742; 2. 19-Stevie Smith, 16.752; 3. 51-Paul McMahan, 16.781; 4. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.784; 5. 3-Pat Cannon, 16.829 (FLIGHT 2) 1. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.831; 2. 25-Aaron Ott, 16.952; 3. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.976; 4. 21-Brian Montieth, 16.978; 5. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.981

Posse- 5, Outlaws- 5 (I included Sammy)

Williams Grove 4- (FLIGHT 1) 1. 51S-Stevie Smith, 18.461; 2. 69K-Justin Henderson, 18.611; 3. 87-Alan Krimes, 18.718; 4. 11C-Cory Haas, 18.779; 5. 1Z-Lucas Wolfe, 18.783 (FLIGHT 2) 1. 21-Brian Montieth, 18.490; 2. 1S-Logan Schuchart, 18.521; 3. 48-Danny Dietrich, 18.551; 4. 15-Donny Schatz, 18.555; 5. 16-Gerard McIntyre, 18.570

Posse- 7, Outlaws- 2, Posse Car/Midwest Driver- 1

Port Royal-  (FLIGHT 1) 1. 9-Daryn Pittman, 16.327; 2. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.346; 3. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.414; 4. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.416; 5. 2-Shane Stewart, 16.462; (FLIGHT 2) 1. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.199; 2. 48-Danny Dietrich, 16.381; 3. 19M-Brent Marks, 16.409; 4. 23-T.J. Stutts, 16.532; 5. 13-Jac Haudenschild, 16.555

Posse- 4, Outlaws- 5, Neutral- 1

Total: Posse- 31, Outlaws- 26, Neutral- 2, Posse Car/Midwest Driver- 1

In the end I would have to say it’ll come down to the pill draw.  An early draw will most likely (not always though) yield a quality qualifying spot.



Very interesting. Thank you for taking the time to lay it all out. It puts things into a proper perspective when you have actual comparative results to look at.



dsc1600
May 17, 2016 at 02:27:41 PM
Joined: 05/31/2007
Posts: 4542
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The flight system has made pill draws less important, but it's still really helpful to be in the first 10 cars.

That said, the Posse bring their A game motors to this weekend, so they should be fine. Aaron Ott, Lucas Wolfe, Stevie and Hodnett are all just as likely to set quick time as Saldana or the KKR team is.

Will be interesting to see how Schatz qualifies, because if he's 20th out of 30 cars in the midwest, he'll be 30th in PA with as many quality cars as there are.



Johnny Utah
May 17, 2016 at 02:33:41 PM
Joined: 07/15/2014
Posts: 1258
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Posted By: on at


Haha. Nah, no stupor, or racing for that matter, for me this past weekend.

I'll be making the two hour trip to the "Fabulous Lincoln Speedway" tomorrow night though. 




BigRightRear
May 17, 2016 at 03:11:43 PM
Joined: 11/27/2004
Posts: 3751
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Saturday = Pontoon Boats


Lincoln 1845 ft/.35 mile T1=118MPH 
Eldora 2287 ft/.43mile T3=135MPH
Port 2716 ft/.51 mile T3=TBD
Grove 2792 ft/.53 mile T3=135MPH
Selinsgrove 2847 ft/.54 mile T1=136MPH
"I didn't move to PA from El Paso in search of better 
weather." Van May

blazer00
May 17, 2016 at 03:39:33 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 2420
Reply
Reply to:
Posted By: Johnny Utah on May 17 2016 at 11:45:23 AM

2015 Central PA Track Qualifying Results

Lincoln- 1. 27-Greg Hodnett, 12.817; 2. 51S-Stevie Smith, 12.987; 3. 94-Ryan Smith, 13.021; 4. 1-Lucas Wolfe, 13.056; 5. 7-David Gravel, 13.071; 6. 25-Aaron Ott, 13.104; 7. 5-Tyler Ross, 13.123; 8. 1S-Logan Schuchart, 13.128; 9. 87-Alan Krimes, 13.144; 10. 9-Daryn Pittman, 13.170

Posse- 7, Outlaws- 3

Williams Grove 1- - 1. 25-Aaron Ott, 16.611; 2. 21-Brian Montieth, 16.651; 3. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.669; 4. 98H-Dave Blaney, 16.703; 5. 2-Shane Stewart, 16.710; 6. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.726; 7. 9-Daryn Pittman, 16.783; 8. 7S-Jason Sides, 16.789; 9. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.806; 10. 51-Paul McMahan, 16.816

Posse- 3, Outlaws- 6, Neutral- 1

Williams Grove 2-  (FLIGHT 1) 1. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.789; 2. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.873; 3. 48-Danny Dietrich, 16.991; 4. 3-Pat Cannon, 17.002; 5. 29-Kerry Madsen, 17.043 (FLIGHT 2) 1Z-Lucas Wolfe, 16.935; 2. 51-Paul McMahan, 17.031; 3. 19-Stevie Smith, 17.034; 4. 7S-Jason Sides, 17.059; 5. 15-Donny Schatz, 17.097

Posse- 5, Outlaws- 5

Williams Grove 3- (FLIGHT 1)1. 1-Sammy Swindell, 16.742; 2. 19-Stevie Smith, 16.752; 3. 51-Paul McMahan, 16.781; 4. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.784; 5. 3-Pat Cannon, 16.829 (FLIGHT 2) 1. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.831; 2. 25-Aaron Ott, 16.952; 3. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.976; 4. 21-Brian Montieth, 16.978; 5. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.981

Posse- 5, Outlaws- 5 (I included Sammy)

Williams Grove 4- (FLIGHT 1) 1. 51S-Stevie Smith, 18.461; 2. 69K-Justin Henderson, 18.611; 3. 87-Alan Krimes, 18.718; 4. 11C-Cory Haas, 18.779; 5. 1Z-Lucas Wolfe, 18.783 (FLIGHT 2) 1. 21-Brian Montieth, 18.490; 2. 1S-Logan Schuchart, 18.521; 3. 48-Danny Dietrich, 18.551; 4. 15-Donny Schatz, 18.555; 5. 16-Gerard McIntyre, 18.570

Posse- 7, Outlaws- 2, Posse Car/Midwest Driver- 1

Port Royal-  (FLIGHT 1) 1. 9-Daryn Pittman, 16.327; 2. 27-Greg Hodnett, 16.346; 3. 29-Kerry Madsen, 16.414; 4. 71M-Joey Saldana, 16.416; 5. 2-Shane Stewart, 16.462; (FLIGHT 2) 1. 15-Donny Schatz, 16.199; 2. 48-Danny Dietrich, 16.381; 3. 19M-Brent Marks, 16.409; 4. 23-T.J. Stutts, 16.532; 5. 13-Jac Haudenschild, 16.555

Posse- 4, Outlaws- 5, Neutral- 1

Total: Posse- 31, Outlaws- 26, Neutral- 2, Posse Car/Midwest Driver- 1

In the end I would have to say it’ll come down to the pill draw.  An early draw will most likely (not always though) yield a quality qualifying spot.



I actually don't think history means crap. Then, with the TT inversions previously used for front row heat starting spots, and pill draw for the Dash, those things determined who stared up front in the Feature. Whoever started up front...first two rows, probably won all but one of those races used in the history example (although I didn't actually look). That will remain the same this year. Front two rows will dominate. The exception now is that the emphasis is on fastest qualifiers.....still a product of the initial pill draw (even with two flights) and dash draw for starting up front in the Feature.



PA Posse Fan
MyWebsite
May 17, 2016 at 06:11:22 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 270
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As for the Posse, Dewease who has beaten the Outlaws many times.  He hasn't looked this good in long time, but put him with Kreitz (another many-time outlaw winner) and Davey Brown, and watch out!

Hodnett and Stevie Smith will also have a good shot.  Stevie rises to the occassion and Hodnett is just fast.  Those are my Posse favorites.  Dietrich does have their number at Lincoln.

For the WoO, of course Schatz, Sweet, and Pittman (familiar with the tracks) are my picks.

Hope the #51S wins, but if not, then the #69K or Zemco #1 (he'll time with the best of them).




19 Posse
May 18, 2016 at 05:51:27 AM
Joined: 12/24/2012
Posts: 364
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Is madsen following the woo trail this weekend? He's shown some real speed so far this season. 



Johnny Utah
May 18, 2016 at 07:56:38 AM
Joined: 07/15/2014
Posts: 1258
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Reply to:
Posted By: blazer00 on May 17 2016 at 03:39:33 PM

I actually don't think history means crap. Then, with the TT inversions previously used for front row heat starting spots, and pill draw for the Dash, those things determined who stared up front in the Feature. Whoever started up front...first two rows, probably won all but one of those races used in the history example (although I didn't actually look). That will remain the same this year. Front two rows will dominate. The exception now is that the emphasis is on fastest qualifiers.....still a product of the initial pill draw (even with two flights) and dash draw for starting up front in the Feature.



I disagree with your contention that history doesn't mean crap, but that's another topic for another day.  My post was to simply quell the notion that because of this new format, all of a sudden the Outlaws will dominate at PA tracks because "they time trial well".  Aren't we in agreement that because the differences in the cars are so small nowadays, drivers can't really sandbag in time trials?  That leads me to believe that last year all across the country at the Outlaw shows, including PA, everyone ran hard in time trials.  Well they run as hard as they can this year, because they get rewarded with a front row spot in the heat for it.  I just don't understand where the apprehension about this new format heavily favoring the Outlaws in PA comes from. Hell, Jeremy picked an Outlaw sweep for the weekend.  

I only had time to research last year's results but it looks like the PA cars, if they run like they did last year, will be just fine with this new format.  



blazer00
May 18, 2016 at 08:46:13 AM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 2420
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Reply to:
Posted By: Johnny Utah on May 18 2016 at 07:56:38 AM

I disagree with your contention that history doesn't mean crap, but that's another topic for another day.  My post was to simply quell the notion that because of this new format, all of a sudden the Outlaws will dominate at PA tracks because "they time trial well".  Aren't we in agreement that because the differences in the cars are so small nowadays, drivers can't really sandbag in time trials?  That leads me to believe that last year all across the country at the Outlaw shows, including PA, everyone ran hard in time trials.  Well they run as hard as they can this year, because they get rewarded with a front row spot in the heat for it.  I just don't understand where the apprehension about this new format heavily favoring the Outlaws in PA comes from. Hell, Jeremy picked an Outlaw sweep for the weekend.  

I only had time to research last year's results but it looks like the PA cars, if they run like they did last year, will be just fine with this new format.  



I agree that the new format won't really change much as far as where the winners come from.....in regards to starting position though and not from WoO or Posse groups. I guess the fact that you kept score through me off. My post was to deflect any potential comparison from last year to this. Totally different program. If your intention was to state that you didn't think the new format favored either group....it would have been very simple to just state that and not go through the effort it took to compile the score from last year. I make this years predictions rather simple.....whoever starts front two rows will most likely win all the races. Until they line up....it's anybody's guess. If there are multiple drivers winning from further back than the front two rows, and the majority of those winners come from one of the groups....then let the bragging rights begin.




blazer00
May 18, 2016 at 08:53:14 AM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 2420
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Reply to:
Posted By: Johnny Utah on May 18 2016 at 07:56:38 AM

I disagree with your contention that history doesn't mean crap, but that's another topic for another day.  My post was to simply quell the notion that because of this new format, all of a sudden the Outlaws will dominate at PA tracks because "they time trial well".  Aren't we in agreement that because the differences in the cars are so small nowadays, drivers can't really sandbag in time trials?  That leads me to believe that last year all across the country at the Outlaw shows, including PA, everyone ran hard in time trials.  Well they run as hard as they can this year, because they get rewarded with a front row spot in the heat for it.  I just don't understand where the apprehension about this new format heavily favoring the Outlaws in PA comes from. Hell, Jeremy picked an Outlaw sweep for the weekend.  

I only had time to research last year's results but it looks like the PA cars, if they run like they did last year, will be just fine with this new format.  



PS.... I agree about the sandbagging, but then I've never felt that a driver could run a lap within .02 or so to fit into an exact time slot. And, I have had many a favorite driver win from the front row. I was happy they won, but have never felt as though winning from the fron row was a point to boast about. I don't think the drivers do, either.



Johnny Utah
May 18, 2016 at 06:05:04 PM
Joined: 07/15/2014
Posts: 1258
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Reply to:
Posted By: blazer00 on May 18 2016 at 08:46:13 AM

I agree that the new format won't really change much as far as where the winners come from.....in regards to starting position though and not from WoO or Posse groups. I guess the fact that you kept score through me off. My post was to deflect any potential comparison from last year to this. Totally different program. If your intention was to state that you didn't think the new format favored either group....it would have been very simple to just state that and not go through the effort it took to compile the score from last year. I make this years predictions rather simple.....whoever starts front two rows will most likely win all the races. Until they line up....it's anybody's guess. If there are multiple drivers winning from further back than the front two rows, and the majority of those winners come from one of the groups....then let the bragging rights begin.



Haha, sure it would have been simpler, but that's not how I roll. I, unlike most posters here, don't like to simply make blanket statements. I like to try and have some data when possible. 



blazer00
May 18, 2016 at 06:09:12 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 2420
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Posted By: Johnny Utah on May 18 2016 at 06:05:04 PM

Haha, sure it would have been simpler, but that's not how I roll. I, unlike most posters here, don't like to simply make blanket statements. I like to try and have some data when possible. 



Obsolete data at that.....SmileSmile




Johnny Utah
May 18, 2016 at 06:17:56 PM
Joined: 07/15/2014
Posts: 1258
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Reply to:
Posted By: blazer00 on May 18 2016 at 06:09:12 PM

Obsolete data at that.....SmileSmile



Jeez, rough corral. 



blazer00
May 18, 2016 at 09:48:23 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 2420
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Reply to:
Posted By: Johnny Utah on May 18 2016 at 06:17:56 PM

Jeez, rough corral. 



just giving you a hard time......Smile

 





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