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Topic: Kinser / Schatz equalibrium Email this topic to a friend | Subscribe to this TopicReport this Topic to Moderator
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Murphy
October 05, 2017 at 01:03:56 PM
Joined: 05/26/2005
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This message was edited on October 05, 2017 at 01:04:41 PM by Murphy

     Steve Kinser in his prime was probably the equal of Donny Schatz in his prime. You can argue that forever because there is no way to ever prove the theory right or wrong- only opinions and those don't prove anything.


      As Kinser got past his prime and was slowing down, Schatz was getting better. At some point there had to be a time of equilibrium between the two; slowing Kinser equal to improving Schatz. What year would that have been, and how did they compare then?




FORD97
October 05, 2017 at 01:19:31 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1116
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2006, year of the split between the WoO and NST, Schatz wins his first WoO championship and his first Knoxville Nationals and he really hasn't ever looked back.


IBRACN: "page hits are page hits..."

Murphy
October 05, 2017 at 01:59:47 PM
Joined: 05/26/2005
Posts: 584
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Reply to:
Posted By: FORD97 on October 05 2017 at 01:19:31 PM

2006, year of the split between the WoO and NST, Schatz wins his first WoO championship and his first Knoxville Nationals and he really hasn't ever looked back.



Interesting.  I went back and looked at stats from that time. It's like Kinser and Schatz just swapped places in the universe.


In the 4 years before 2006 Kinser averaged about 21 wins a year. In the 4 years after he averaged about 7 wins per year.

In the 4 years before 2006 Schatz averaged about 6 wins a year. In the 4 years after he averaged about 14 wins per year.



egras
October 05, 2017 at 04:01:13 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
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This message was edited on October 05, 2017 at 04:01:52 PM by egras
Reply to:
Posted By: FORD97 on October 05 2017 at 01:19:31 PM

2006, year of the split between the WoO and NST, Schatz wins his first WoO championship and his first Knoxville Nationals and he really hasn't ever looked back.



Without even doing the research Murphy lists, I was going to guess somewhere in that '06-07 timeframe. 

 

Now, the burning question:  Steve dominated for almost 20 years.  Assuming the whole David Gravel phenomenon is more than a 1 or 2 year deal, and he continues to run full-time on the WOO tour, does Donny's grip on the WOO fizzle out before Steve's did?  (this obviously won't be answered until it happens, but fun to debate) 

It will be interesting.  Donny's reign of terror could end quicker than Kinsers but not due to lack of talent--the Donny/Kinser debate can rage on for years to come.  Gravel may actually be that good as well--he's only 25.  Once again, time will tell.  We have seen small sample sizes of brillance before only to have them go to the wayside. (in every sport)  If David and Donny are each getting 20 wins per year for the next 5 years, does that water down Donny's legacy in comparison to Kinser's?  I say no, but you see what I mean.  If Gravel keeps it up, Don Don will appear to have lost something when this is in fact not the case. 



StanM
MyWebsite MyResults MyPressRelease
October 05, 2017 at 06:09:07 PM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 3950
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Part of the equation is Kinser's longevity.  Remember, there was a big three, then there were two, and now there is one running part time.  Two of the big three were fortunate to have never been seriously injured and their longevity allowed them to race into what was at one time the unheard of age of 60+. 

Another thing I often wonder.  Schatz seems to have a fondness for Late Models and it's no secret that Sprint car wrecks can be hard on the body.  Will he at some point decide to step back from Sprint Cars and concentrate on his Fargo based business interests and play in the dirt with the Late Model around the upper Midwest?  It's not a given that he's going to stay in Sprint Cars or race indefinately.  Only time will tell how things unfold.  By my guestimate he's around my middle daughter's age at or near 40.  Schatz doesn't tip his hand much about future plans so does he have an age in mind that he's going to get out of it, 45, 50, or?  With some professional Sprint Car drivers that's all they have ever done but Schatz doesn't really need to race when he decides that it's time to make a life change.


Stan Meissner

dsc1600
October 05, 2017 at 07:39:27 PM
Joined: 05/31/2007
Posts: 2092
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2006 was the year the torch was passed.

As to Gravel, even if he does become a dominant driver, that doesn’t mean Schatz is done. There were years in the 80s where Wolfgang or Sammy were better than Steve but Steve was the overall dominant driver of the era.



Murphy
October 05, 2017 at 08:49:51 PM
Joined: 05/26/2005
Posts: 584
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Some number to ponder:

1st 10 years that Kinser was in the top 20 in WoO points, he had 214 wins, broken down by year: 11-23-28-23-13-18-19-15-18-46

1st 10 years that Schatz was in the top 20 in WoO points, he had 34 wins, broken down by year: 0-0-1-3-1-6-2-7-6-8


     One record that I doubt Schatz or anyone will ever touch is Kinser's 1987 record of winning 46 of 69 races > 67%. Not bad considering he was racing against Doty, Davis, Haudenschild, Shuman, Mark Kinser, Danny Smith, Herrera, Sammy Swindell, Allen, Sills, Dave Blaney and Wolfgang. If it hadn't been for those guys, he probably would have hit 100%- or more!



blazer00
October 05, 2017 at 09:24:22 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 1285
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Reply to:
Posted By: Murphy on October 05 2017 at 01:03:56 PM

     Steve Kinser in his prime was probably the equal of Donny Schatz in his prime. You can argue that forever because there is no way to ever prove the theory right or wrong- only opinions and those don't prove anything.


      As Kinser got past his prime and was slowing down, Schatz was getting better. At some point there had to be a time of equilibrium between the two; slowing Kinser equal to improving Schatz. What year would that have been, and how did they compare then?



First of all, you have it backwards. It should be does Donny Schatz in his prime compare to Steve Kinser in his prime. Statistically, the answer is a resounding no. Statistics are facts, and do prove only certain points without doubt, I know. Steve won his first WoO title at age 24, Schatz won his first at age 29. At age 40, Schatz has 8 WoO titles, at age 40 Kinser had 14 WoO titles. The only thing that becomes opinion that can't be proven is on track head to head racing while they were both in their primes. But.....even after Steve was past his prime he stacked up well against Schatz. Schatz was WoO Rookie of the Year in 1997 at age 22, Kinser was 43. In the 14 seasons they went head to head, Schatz had 6 WoO titles and Kinser had 6. Kinser won his last title at age 51. Other than titles during that span, Schatz had 6 seasons in the top 10 WoO points and Kinser had 8. Kinser was last in the top 10 at age 60, in 2014. Whether or not Schats compiles numbers like that remains to be seen. Yes, Schatz is the only driver to have stats that can be compared to Kinser. But he comes up quite short at this time. 

As for on the track, in my opinion, Schatz is one of four, maybe five drivers from their two eras that stack up to Kinser in driving ability. Statistically, Kinser has 36 years of WoO competion for the books which gives him that edge. Many equally capable drivers do not, but still gave Steve all he could handle on the track while in his prime. Swindell and Wolfgang for sure were equals no matter what they were in, Lasoski, Blaney and Mark Kinser were right there when they had the proper rides to showcase what they could do. Lasoski had limited WoO years and Wolfgang, Blaney and Mark had shortened WoO careers and sprint car careers in general, with Wolfgang having the fewest seasons with the WoO. Those five for sure had to contend with the best Steve Kinser there was.......and he with them. 

Schatz is so far ahead of the drivers in his genearation and age group that it isn't even close. I still think that has as much to do with their inabilities as it does to do with Schatz's abilities. Schatz, like all of the best, just does not make mistakes. The rest of the current WoO drivers are continually making far too many on track mistakes, and that's pretty easy to see. 



GT730
October 05, 2017 at 10:12:13 PM
Joined: 06/15/2014
Posts: 75
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Gravel is much younger than Steve and Donny were when they hit their prime. Drivers retire much younger than they used to as well. I think if CJB and Gravel can find a way to carry over from year to year like the 15 does, he could be the dominant force that both Steve and Donny were and have been. Here’s to hoping!



hardon
October 05, 2017 at 11:56:24 PM
Joined: 02/20/2005
Posts: 15
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Just a couple questions here.  I'm not trying to take away from Schatz or Kinser but both of these guys in their primes lost much more than they won.  Anyway does Schatz dominance beginning in 06 or 07 have anything to do with Tony Stewart buying his team?  Also while Kinser won a ton of championships in the 80s and 90s, how many years did Swindell and Wolfgang run against him?



blazer00
October 06, 2017 at 01:09:24 AM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 1285
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Reply to:
Posted By: hardon on October 05 2017 at 11:56:24 PM

Just a couple questions here.  I'm not trying to take away from Schatz or Kinser but both of these guys in their primes lost much more than they won.  Anyway does Schatz dominance beginning in 06 or 07 have anything to do with Tony Stewart buying his team?  Also while Kinser won a ton of championships in the 80s and 90s, how many years did Swindell and Wolfgang run against him?



Lost much more than they won????? What the hell driver hasn't?! Good grief! Kinser's 577 wins accounts for just shy of 20% of all WoO Feature wins run for his career. Probably the best winning percentage of any driver in any form of motorspots all time. Schatz was very strong before he won his first WoO title in '06, and well before he got hooked up with Stewart. having Stewart as car owner though has probably made for his dominance. As for Swindell and Wolfgang vs Kinser. Sammy did run many years of his career with the WoO. He was also on board with a good number of cars......top cars of course, but he did move around a lot and tried a lot of innovating that sometimes didn't pan out very well. Sammy was also part time and absent for quite a few years off and on with the WoO. Steve had Karl Kinser for around 17 years and Karl's right hand man for around another 12 years or so. So his rides were very stable and proven. Wolfgang was never really much for running after WoO championships. Was hired a couple times early on for that purpose and ran second to Kinser both times. Ran second to Sammy one year, also. Doug probably only ran a total 6 or 7 years with the WoO. During his career he drove for around 20 different car owners and compiled close to 600 Feature wins total.  For most of '84 thru '87 he was in the Weikert car, and could win anywhere against anybody, and he did. His '85 season was unreal! In '89 in the 8D car, he ran both WoO and USA events and won right at 50% of the races he entered. He also led both the WoO and the USA in Feature wins that year. Bobby Davis Jr won the WoO title, while Steve won the USA title which was comprised of Steve, Mark, Sammy and Blaney as the notable draws. Doug's career really came to an end in '91 when he was burned so badly. But he was still winning! He won the Knoxville Nationals in '89, the Kings Royal in '90 and finished 2nd to Kinser again in the WoO points race in '90. So he still had some winning potential ahead of him had it not been for the burns.



blazer00
October 06, 2017 at 01:27:27 AM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 1285
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Actually, Doug's burns occured in '92, not in '91.  In '91 running just part time he won 6 WoO Features.



FORD97
October 06, 2017 at 07:13:38 AM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1116
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Reply to:
Posted By: hardon on October 05 2017 at 11:56:24 PM

Just a couple questions here.  I'm not trying to take away from Schatz or Kinser but both of these guys in their primes lost much more than they won.  Anyway does Schatz dominance beginning in 06 or 07 have anything to do with Tony Stewart buying his team?  Also while Kinser won a ton of championships in the 80s and 90s, how many years did Swindell and Wolfgang run against him?



Schatz won 2 WoO championships and 2 Nationals in the family-owned equipment before joining forces with TSR in 2008.

Now I'm going to switch from fact mode to opinion mode.

The graybeards of the board will argue themselves to exhaustion that Kinser was better and faced better competition. I'll grant that it is likely that Wolfgang and Swindell provided better competition as drivers than what Schatz sees today. However, both of them at many times were not on the tour fully and did a lot more ride hopping over the years. I will argue that at no time in Kinser's competitive years did he see full fields of cars with the same competitive equipment he was driving himself. I think Steve had a car advantage far more often that Schatz does now. There is little argument that the cars are closer than ever right now. In my mind, that puts what Schatz has done over the last decade a bit more impressive than what Steve did in his prime.

Now, longevity will bear out how they compare when Schatz decides to retire.

I don't have a dog in the fight because I'm neither a Schatz nor Kinser fan, but I have grown up watching one and saw the other mature as an adult. 

I would hope most people have these two as #1 and #2 all-time drivers. You can argue who is which from there.


IBRACN: "page hits are page hits..."

Murphy
October 06, 2017 at 09:23:13 AM
Joined: 05/26/2005
Posts: 584
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     That brings up an interesting question. Which would you rather have- Tony Stewart's money or Karl Kinser turning the wrenches?



Murphy
October 06, 2017 at 09:27:16 AM
Joined: 05/26/2005
Posts: 584
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Two real similar traits that I see between Kinser and Schatz is that they are both easy on the equipment. Some guys race with a win it or wear it mindset. Those guys usually burn through their owner's money fast and then they move on. It seems like Kinser and Schatz race more with the idea of win it or finish as far forward as possible without the wheels falling off.



blazer00
October 06, 2017 at 12:50:29 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 1285
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Reply to:
Posted By: Murphy on October 06 2017 at 09:27:16 AM

Two real similar traits that I see between Kinser and Schatz is that they are both easy on the equipment. Some guys race with a win it or wear it mindset. Those guys usually burn through their owner's money fast and then they move on. It seems like Kinser and Schatz race more with the idea of win it or finish as far forward as possible without the wheels falling off.



When you watch footage of drivers, past and present, what you are stating becomes very obvious. The three consistantly smoothest drivers I've seen since the birth of the WoO are clearly Steve, Donny and Wolfgang, with Lasoski right there with them. Even in interviews they have alluded to that. Doug especially. His interviews were the best. Several times when Doug won he mentioned that he was prepared to settle for 3rd or 4th rather than abuse or destroy the car, but he was in position at the end. Steve has admitted to not having the fastest car out there, but he found the best way around that fit his setup, and was there at the end. Comparing Kinser and Schatz is so damn difficult really, because they have that in common, Donny it seems is always there at the end, also. That, and as I've stated before, making mistakes was/is just not part of their makeup. As for having Stewart's money or Karl's wrench, today especially, it takes both to be the best, but I'll still give the edge to the wrench (and driver) to make it go and stick.



Murphy
October 06, 2017 at 02:19:50 PM
Joined: 05/26/2005
Posts: 584
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This message was edited on October 06, 2017 at 03:46:04 PM by Murphy

Math Geek time-  (Note major math error in the information below as pointed out by dsc 1600 in the next post and as corrected by the confused Math Geek on the first post on page 2. Oops!)


The first 6 years that David Gravel showed up in the top 20 WoO points, his wins were: 0-1-5-0-9-16. That averages out to 5.17
wins per year. Of course that average goes up marginally if he wins more yet this season.


Schatz has 229 wins so far, Gravel 16. That means Gravel only has to pick up 213 more wins to catch Schatz. Of course, if Schatz wins more, then there is more ground to make up.

So right now, at an average of 5.17 wins per year, Gravel would catch Schatz in only about 41 years.


(In the interest of fairness, Schatz averaged 1.83 wins per year the 1st 6 years he was in the top 20 in WoO points. He picked up a little steam after that,  so there you go.)



dsc1600
October 06, 2017 at 02:49:51 PM
Joined: 05/31/2007
Posts: 2092
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Reply to:
Posted By: Murphy on October 06 2017 at 02:19:50 PM

Math Geek time-  (Note major math error in the information below as pointed out by dsc 1600 in the next post and as corrected by the confused Math Geek on the first post on page 2. Oops!)


The first 6 years that David Gravel showed up in the top 20 WoO points, his wins were: 0-1-5-0-9-16. That averages out to 5.17
wins per year. Of course that average goes up marginally if he wins more yet this season.


Schatz has 229 wins so far, Gravel 16. That means Gravel only has to pick up 213 more wins to catch Schatz. Of course, if Schatz wins more, then there is more ground to make up.

So right now, at an average of 5.17 wins per year, Gravel would catch Schatz in only about 41 years.


(In the interest of fairness, Schatz averaged 1.83 wins per year the 1st 6 years he was in the top 20 in WoO points. He picked up a little steam after that,  so there you go.)



Gravel won 16 already this year, so he’s over 30 wins already.



blazer00
October 06, 2017 at 02:59:59 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 1285
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Reply to:
Posted By: Murphy on October 06 2017 at 02:19:50 PM

Math Geek time-  (Note major math error in the information below as pointed out by dsc 1600 in the next post and as corrected by the confused Math Geek on the first post on page 2. Oops!)


The first 6 years that David Gravel showed up in the top 20 WoO points, his wins were: 0-1-5-0-9-16. That averages out to 5.17
wins per year. Of course that average goes up marginally if he wins more yet this season.


Schatz has 229 wins so far, Gravel 16. That means Gravel only has to pick up 213 more wins to catch Schatz. Of course, if Schatz wins more, then there is more ground to make up.

So right now, at an average of 5.17 wins per year, Gravel would catch Schatz in only about 41 years.


(In the interest of fairness, Schatz averaged 1.83 wins per year the 1st 6 years he was in the top 20 in WoO points. He picked up a little steam after that,  so there you go.)



Schatz had tougher competition back then than Gravel has had to deal with. LOL!



MoOpenwheel
October 06, 2017 at 03:22:56 PM
Joined: 07/27/2005
Posts: 455
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Some say that it was easier to win back then.  But I've always wondered if it were easier why didn't more guys win more?  Why was it only easier for one guy to win so much?





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